Dr. Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co. Sees Slow Growth for At Least the Next Decade
2009-07-02 17:44:43
We talked with Dr. A. Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling and Co. recently, and he gave us his overview of the current economic climate, and what government involvement in the economy portends for the future of economic recovery in the U.S.:Dr. Shilling: The government stimulus is being more than offset by private sector weakness and I happen to believe that after we get out of this recession, we're going to see not only a slow recovery, but slower growth for probably the next decade, a very big contrast to what we have had in the 1980s and 1990s. Probably as a result, we're going to have a heavier government involvement in the economy to combat what otherwise would be very high unemployment. It's a political issue.For the complete Investing Strategies report, including a full interview with Dr. Shilling, as well as interviews with a wide variety of portfolio managers of from a broad range of styles, click here.
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2009-06-28 14:35:23
You can now follow The Wall Street Transcript on Twitter at twitter.com/wstranscript Stay connected for breaking news, issue updates, new commentaries as they are posted and exclusive content not available anywhere else.
Top Canadian Picks from Paul Taylor of BMO Harris
2009-06-23 16:12:43
Speaking this week with Paul Taylor of the BMO Harris Investment Management in Toronto, we asked him to give us some of the companies he's looking at in the Canadian market:- SNC-Lavalin (SNC:TSX) - "SNC-Lavalin is an engineering and construction firm. If you want to build a road, a new hospital, if you want to build a plant surface facility at a base metals operation [in Canada], you approach SNC-Lavalin for project management to take your project from greenfield to a completed facility. There was a very, very healthy backlog for all of the infrastructure firms including SNC-Lavalin going into 2008, while from the private sector there have been some projects that have been canceled. South of the border the public sector and the Obama Administration have earmarked fiscal stimulus plans for infrastructure. Similarly the Harper Administration here north of the border has a significant spend on infrastructure projects and firms like SNC will be beneficiaries."
- Research in Motion (RIMM)- "We did add to our Research in Motion position in February and we believe that is an example of world-leading innovation in a very significant market segment. We believe the transition from old phones to smart phones is a process that is inevitable, and it will continue to emerge at least over thenext three to five years. Research in Motion, which booked their one millionth subscriber four years ago, is a firm that we believe has the potential to grow to 50 million or 100 million subscribers in the not too distant future, and we believe from a valuation perspective that this is a stock with tremendous growth potential, trading at very reasonable valuation multiples."
- Suncor (SU) & Petro-Canada (PCZ)- "We've owned the majors [in oil sands], we've owned Suncor and we've owned Petro-Canada. Of course, Suncor is in the process of taking out Petro-Canada to get the scale that is required to fund the capital expenditures that are needed to be able to extract oil from the sand. The idea of having a firm of the scale of the combined Suncor/Petro-Canada is compelling when oil goes from $147 to $40 and then back to $60. So we have some core exposure to the oil sands."
Home Grown Stock Pick from UMB in Kansas
2009-06-11 17:14:35
In our recent interview with William Grenier, CIO of UMB Investment Management, he talked a little bit about a stock that is demonstrative of his investment strategy, and is based right in Kansas City where UMB is located:Mr. Greiner: A name that we have been utilizing now for quite some period of time that I feel pretty comfortable talking about is Cerner Corporation (CERN). Cerner is a local company here in Kansas City and they are involved in information technology, catering to the healthcare industry large doctors' offices and doctors' practices in hospitals. They basically help doctors offices move toward a paperless office environment, which is one of the mandates coming out of Washington. The Obama Administration wants the health system to be a paperless kind of system and Cerner provides software packages for those end-users.For the full Investing Strategies report- including a complete interview with Mr. Greiner as well as a wide variety of other portfolio managers, click here.
What Should Investors Do now? 3 Portfolio Managers Respond
2009-05-13 17:34:43
Each issue of TWST, we speak to portfolio managers coming from a variety of perspectives on the market. In each interview, we make sure to ask them what advice they would offer at the present moment for our readers. Here's what three different portfolio managers had to say:- Lee Lahourcade, Vaughn Neslon Investment Management: We would advise, given how volatile the markets are, not to chase the market. We think 2009 is going to be a range-bound market with the S&P likely to trade in a range of 700 to 1,000. We would recommend, as levels get closer to the bottom of that range, that one put more money to work. Today we are about in the mid-point of the range, so building some positions in selected stocks is probably a smart strategy.
- Ken Salmon, M&I Investment Management Corp.: Our advice to investors would be to have a diversified portfolio that includes exposure to small cap and mid-cap stocks. We're still in a difficult time with the economy and the stock market, but there are a lot of policy responses around the globe trying to offset the weakness. Whether it's improving liquidity in the credit markets, whether it's working with the banks to remove some of the most problematic assets from their balance sheets to free up some capital, whether it's the federal government and/or state governments coming up with various economic stimulus programs, certainly all that helps. Also, we've spent the last six months going down at a tremendous rate and we're in a period of stabilization right now. Everybody is kind of taking a deep breath and we're hoping we can move forward from here. We're long-term optimists, but we're also taking it one day at a time and seeing how things develop.
- David Pequet, MPI Investment Managemen: In fixed income, I would stay away from pure Treasuries and money funds. I would keep my portfolio quality high. We like seasoned GNMAs right now that have average lives of four years and yield 3%-3.5%. They are very high quality, good income, short duration...On the municipal side, also stay in short/intermediate durations. Focus on essential service bonds, GOs, water, sewer, electric revs and pre-refunded bonds.