Inverted Yield Curve Not the Kiss of Death for the Market Says Peter Andersen

August 27, 2019

Peter C. Andersen, CFA, is Founder of Andersen Capital Management, LLC. He has been managing money for a wide range of clients since 1993. He has managed separate accounts and over 10 mutual funds throughout his career, including IPOs for two NYSE-listed closed-end funds. He has written over 100 articles for Forbes magazine. He is also a regular contributor to CNBC and Fox Business.

A graduate of Northeastern University, Mr. Andersen received an MPA degree from Harvard University and an M.S. degree in physics from Yale University. He is on the board of the Boston Symphony Orchestra and is a member of the Investment Committee, the Nominating Committee, and Chairman of the Annual Funds. He also is on the board of the Peabody Essex Museum.

In his exclusive 2,984 word interview, only in the Wall Street Transcript, Mr. Anderson appears less anxious than most about the current yield curve inversion:

“The thesis says anytime a curve looks like it’s going to invert and becomes inverted, that portends a recession. And the data just doesn’t back that up. It’s not a scientific fact, like gravity, that if I drop a stone, I know it will hit the ground.

With mathematics applied to economics, we have to interpret it and use it more loosely than we would a science. Economics is not a science; this is a social science. And I would advise your readers, your subscribers to take that into effect and look at these readings but not necessarily immediately conclude that they are always accurate and that they lead to 100% predictions of dire consequences like recessions.”

The specific stock picks are interesting and idiosyncratic:

“With the increased global geopolitical tension, the U.S. government spends a lot of effort and funding on consulting services because they need the expertise of highly trained mathematicians, engineers, weapons production, all of that.

And they outsource that kind of work to a consulting firm such as Booz Allen Hamilton, which oversees the whole implementation of, say, manufacturing, when contracts are awarded to companies like Raytheon (NYSE:RTN), etc.

They oversee the management of that production. And they have some of the smartest mathematicians, engineers in these companies that help protect us and project what the next steps should be.”

Get more of Mr. Anderson’s top picks by reading the entire 2,984 word interview, only in the Wall Street Transcript.