The increase in data demand and the limited spectrum availability are shifting competitive dynamics in the wireless communications space, leading carriers to engage in a mix of capex, partnerships and M&A activity to satisfy the seemingly unquenchable thirst for faster data transfers by smartphone users, says Jonathan Chaplin, Senior Analyst at Credit Suisse.
“You’ve basically got a land grab for spectrum going on right now, and there is very limited supply, and it has interesting implications for a couple of companies,” he said. “There are two options, either moderate usage or demand or increase prices. Right now, we don’t see a big demand moderation. Either the quality of service on wireless networks is going to go down or pricing is going to go up.”
Chaplin likes Clearwire Corporation (CLWR) in the near term although the company had a difficult time in 2011 from a stock performance perspective. He says Clearwire is the one company in the wireless communications space with massive amounts of unused spectrum, and he believes the company’s spectrum is going to increase in value significantly as data demand increases.
“In the case of Clearwire, we think with the breakdown of the AT&T/T-Mobile merger, there’s going to be a big increase in demand for their spectrum. AT&T is going to need more spectrum. T-Mobile is going to need more spectrum. Leap and MetroPCS, who had planned to buy spectrum, need more spectrum,” Chaplin said.
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