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Analyst Interview Excerpt
INVESTING IN RESTAURANTS – JEFFREY BERNSTEIN – LEHMAN BROTHERS


Full article published: 01/21/2008


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TWST: As we look at 2007, how would you characterize what you saw take place in the restaurant space?
Mr. Bernstein: I'd say what was previously viewed as a fairly immune category, and when I say immune, I mean immune to macro pressures, has clearly proven otherwise. It's been extremely challenging for many of our restaurant operators and more so in the casual dining space relative to quick service. It's really been a perfect storm of top-line pressures from a slowing consumer environment, then cost pressures from rising commodity and labor costs, all of which have squeezed many of our restaurant operators — once again, more so on the casual dining side than the quick service sector.

TWST: Why the impact on the casual dining?
Mr. Bernstein: Casual dining targets a slightly higher-end consumer. In a tougher macro environment, when people are scaling back on spending on food away from home, they might be inclined to perhaps spend less at a casual dining restaurant or perhaps visit the restaurant fewer times per month. On the flip side, they trade down oftentimes to a quick service type chain that over the past couple of years has really improved their product offerings. They have been able to capture some of that trade down and they also have tremendous value programs. They're really capturing that low-end consumer regardless of the environment. The casual diners have really been pinched. Also, they own and operate most of their own stores. The cost pressures really hit the casual diners whereas the quick service chains franchise most of their stores, so they don't feel the same cost pressures.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: BKC, DRI, MCD

 

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