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Analyst recommends Ralcorp Full article published: 03/29/2004     DAVID NELSON is a Managing Director in the equities division of Credit Suisse First Boston


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Three analysts and top management from 8 sector firms examine the Food Industry sector in this 48 - page Food Industry Issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or www.twst.com

TWST: David, what's your take on what's gone on so far this year?

Mr. Nelson: I would probably come down somewhere between Jonathan and Eric. I have many overall macro and fundamental concerns in addition to those Jonathan raised, but I also agree with Eric that much of the industry is better managed than it used to be. But I think there is a fairly wide spectrum of divergence on the management front. Jonathan mentioned Kellogg kind of getting it ' in terms of a slower and more costly environment. I think Hershey (HSY) gets it. Heinz (HNZ) talks about it qualitatively, but I still think it has an excessive earnings growth target of 8%-10%. At the other end of the spectrum you have companies like General Mills still thinking mid-single-digit top line at least for the next three years, and double-digit on average at the bottom line. Both of my colleagues make good points, but I think there are differences within the industry that I don't think are being reflected in valuation.

TWST: David, what's your advice to institutions?

Mr. Nelson: On the packaged-food group, which is where I have a group rating, my rating is underperform. The key metric I use to determine my group rating is the discounted cash flow work I mentioned before. I think the market is embedding too high a growth rate. The food group is up 3% year to date and the S&P is close to flat. So we've seen some sector rotation and I've certainly been wrong the last couple of months. But I think the sector rotation may be close to over if my valuation work is correct. I follow some of the other ag-companies that Eric mentioned, but I don't have a group rating on those per se because what's good for Bunge is not necessarily good for Smithfield, for instance.

TWST: Are there some names that you're recommending?

Mr. Nelson: I've thought some of the smaller cap names have had the most upside. I've been recommending Bunge and Ralcorp (RAH), and recently I went back to an outperform on Dean. Among the large cap names, I'm recommending Kellogg and Hershey. For the most part, making money in packaged-food stocks has more been a function of owning stocks that don't miss rather than trying to find stocks that will beat. I think you have less risk of missing with Kellogg and Hershey than elsewhere. I've also had an outperform on General Mills since last October ' more as a trade than anything. Mills got down to about an 18% discount to the rest of the group. My thesis is that once you get past the SEC investigation and then past the overhang, you could get somewhat close to a group multiple for this stock ' which gives you the potential for a value in the low 50s. This is more of a trade than a long-term recommendation, as I believe the company's growth expectations are excessive. As long as that is the case, they are likely to continue to miss earnings forecasts and miss allocate capital.

This special Issue includes:

1) Food Industry - In an in-depth (7,000 words) Roundtable Forum, Johnathan P. Feeney, an analyst at Wachovia Securities, Eric Katzman, Managing Director at Deutsche Bank Securities and David Nelson, Managing Director at Credit Suisse First Boston, examine the outlook for the sector and share specific stock recommendations.

2) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of eight sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector. Firms include:

Agricor, Cal-Maine Foods, CHS, Fresh Del Monte Produce, Imperial Sugar Company, McCormick & Company, Monterey Pasta Company, Spectrum Organic Products


Tickers included in this excerpt: RAH

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Food Industry Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 03/29/04. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2004, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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