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Analyst believes demographics work in the favor of Waste Connections Full article published: 10/18/2002     THOMAS P. FORD is VP in the basic industry group of Lehman Brothers Equity Research


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Five analysts and top management from four sector firms examine the Environmental Services sector in this 57 - page Environmental Services Issue from The Wall Street Transcript available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info627.htm

TWST: First, where does the environmental services coverage fit within the overall Lehman Brothers effort at this point?

Mr. Ford: The environment services group for me right now pertains primarily to the solid waste companies. I am part of the industrial group, which is obviously one of a handful of sectors at Lehman — technology, health care, etc.

TWST: Is there a weighting, a recommendation at that larger level, the industrial level, with respect to these major groups?

Mr. Ford: Lehman Brothers has a strategy group, much like other Wall Street firms. The recommended portfolio list has none of my stocks on it at this time. From a sector perspective, Lehman Brothers Strategy Group currently rates the industrial group as underweight, owing to slowing momentum in the manufacturing sector.

TWST: You mentioned three of the larger players. Are there no niche areas within solid waste that bear watching?

Mr. Ford: There are a couple of things in that sense. Number one would be companies with differentiated strategies. By that I mean a company on the small cap side, like Waste Connections (Nasdaq:WCNX) or Casella Waste (CWST), which has chosen to focus on the secondary and tertiary markets in this country. Waste Connections, in particular, has tended to focus on markets where demographics are in their favor. They have also tended to focus on a balanced revenue mix, if you will, between franchise and competitive markets. Waste Connections is generally a western United States focused company.

TWST: Walk us through your current coverage and recommendations then, particularly with a view as to where your insights might be different from what the balance of the Street might be saying?

Mr. Ford: Starting at the macro level, we rate the Environmental Services sector as neutral, in that we believe conditions are for the most part stable. As I mentioned before, my rating system is based on a relative performance element, in the sense that the recommendations are not expected outperformance relative to the overall market; they are expected outperformance to an equal weighted group index. In terms of the big three, Allied Waste, Republic Services and Waste Management, I have Waste Management rated an overweight and the other two names an equal weight. Waste Connections is a bit of a different business model. It tends to focus on a balanced approach, in terms of franchise and competitive market business. It is also a more traditional solid waste company, in the sense that acquisition activity is still a key part of growth for this company. So net net, this is a combination of excellent growth (relative to its peers) and management oversight, where execution on operational initiatives has been consistent with if not better than investors’ expectations. I see the basic model of acquisitions continuing as well as opportunities to improve those platforms after they are acquired. Of all of the stocks in the solid waste group, I think Waste Connections is the only one that really has been able to put together consistent top-line and high teens to low-$20 earnings growth, even in this very difficult economic environment. And again, that should (and is expected to) continue. So that is another stock that I have rated overweight.

Environmental Services - In an in-depth (8,700 words) Analyst Roundtable, Richard C. Eastman, a Senior Analyst & Managing Director at Robert W. Baird & Co. and Alan Pavese, a Director & Research Analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, examine the outlook for the sector and share specific stock recommendations.

Waste & Environmental Services - In an in-depth (5,100 words) Analyst interview, Kevin P. Monroe, a Research Analyst at Thomas Wiesel Partners, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

Waste Companies - In an in-depth (4,500 words) Analyst interview, Amanda Tepper, a Senior Analyst at JP Morgan, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

Outlook for Solid Waste Companies - In an in-depth (5,600 words) Analyst interview, Thomas P. Ford, a Vice President at Lehman Brothers, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of four - sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: WCNX

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 10/14/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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