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Analyst recommends small cap Casella Waste Full article published: 10/17/2002     THOMAS P. FORD is a VP in the basic industry group of Lehman Brothers Equity Research


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Five analysts and top management from four sector firms examine the Environmental Services sector in this 57 - page Environmental Services Issue from The Wall Street Transcript available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info627.htm

TWST: First, where does the environmental services coverage fit within the overall Lehman Brothers effort at this point?

Mr. Ford: The environment services group for me right now pertains primarily to the solid waste companies. I am part of the industrial group, which is obviously one of a handful of sectors at Lehman — technology, health care, etc.

TWST: You mentioned three of the larger players. Are there no niche areas within solid waste that bear watching?

Mr. Ford: There are a couple of things in that sense. Number one would be companies with differentiated strategies. By that I mean a company on the small cap side, like Waste Connections (WCNX) or Casella Waste (Nasdaq:CWST), which has chosen to focus on the secondary and tertiary markets in this country. Waste Connections, in particular, has tended to focus on markets where demographics are in their favor. They have also tended to focus on a balanced revenue mix, if you will, between franchise and competitive markets. Waste Connections is generally a western United States focused company. On the flip side, Casella is a company that is primarily focused in the Northeast. Their basic strategy is, in essence, focusing on the smaller secondary and tertiary markets that the big three garbage companies have generally not focused on and, as a result, it has become a big fish in a small pond.

TWST: Walk us through your current coverage and recommendations then, particularly with a view as to where your insights might be different from what the balance of the Street might be saying?

Mr. Ford: Starting at the macro level, we rate the Environmental Services sector as neutral, in that we believe conditions are for the most part stable. As I mentioned before, my rating system is based on a relative performance element, in the sense that the recommendations are not expected outperformance relative to the overall market; they are expected outperformance to an equal weighted group index. In terms of the big three, Allied Waste, Republic Services and Waste Management, I have Waste Management rated an overweight and the other two names an equal weight. On the small cap side, Casella Waste, as I mentioned earlier, is a company that tends to focus on the smaller secondary markets. It does have cyclical exposure, but it also has very high share positions in the majority of its markets. Additionally, Casella is a company that is several years out from a strategic merger, where the integration obviously did not go as planned, and the company and its operating performance suffered to a great degree. Over the last two years, the company has paired non-core assets. It has focused, through investment in technology, on improving its productivity, as well as on other elements, such as safety and utilizing technology to realize operational improvements. So net net, you’re now back down to a solid waste company. Disparate assets have been sold and, in addition, I think it has some company-specific opportunities. Casella has near-term opportunities to improve its relative share position, as well as the amount of waste that it collects and brings to its own sites. Additionally, it has improved its relative balance sheet position to the point where now it’s slightly under 60% debt to total cap, so it can begin again to think about acquisition activity in its core solid waste area. I think that will be something that the company will gradually commence over the next several quarters. And again, I’m looking for company-specific drivers and I think that that should obviously be a positive catalyst for the stock. So I have that rated an overweight.

Environmental Services - In an in-depth (8,700 words) Analyst Roundtable, Richard C. Eastman, a Senior Analyst & Managing Director at Robert W. Baird & Co. and Alan Pavese, a Director & Research Analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, examine the outlook for the sector and share specific stock recommendations.

Waste & Environmental Services - In an in-depth (5,100 words) Analyst interview, Kevin P. Monroe, a Research Analyst at Thomas Wiesel Partners, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

Waste Companies - In an in-depth (4,500 words) Analyst interview, Amanda Tepper, a Senior Analyst at JP Morgan, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

Outlook for Solid Waste Companies - In an in-depth (5,600 words) Analyst interview, Thomas P. Ford, a Vice President at Lehman Brothers, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of four - sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: CWST

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 10/14/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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