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Analyst rates Univision as a long-term buy Full article published: 04/24/2002     ALISSA GOLDWASSER is a Research Analyst at William Blair & Company


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Four analysts and top management from seven sector firms examine the broadcasting sector in this special 57-page Broadcasting Industry issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info531.htm

TWST: Will you begin by telling us about the performance of the radio stocks and the Spanish language broadcasters in the second half of 2001 and in 2002 year to date?

Ms. Goldwasser: It was a very tough period generally for advertising-based businesses. What we learned throughout the period beginning in the second half of 2000 through the end of last year is that Spanish-language media outperforms general market media in good times and bad. I estimate that Spanish-language media revenues increased 4% in 2001 compared to a decline of 6% for the general ad market. Clearly, there were several things going on in 2001 that made it an unusually difficult advertising environment for all broadcasters. In the beginning of the year, broadcasters struggled with the disappearance of dot-com advertising. Then, the economy proved to be dramatically weaker than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year. Finally, the tragedy of September 11 and the impact it had on advertisers’ willingness to spend took its toll on industry revenue in the fourth quarter. From what I can tell, the ad market did not deteriorate further in the first quarter of 2002, but the recovery will likely be gradual, not robust.

TWST: And Univision (NYSE:UVN), what’s the story there?

Ms. Goldwasser: 2002 is going to be an unusual year for Univision. The company launched a new Spanish-language television network in January, recently entered the music recording business, and will broadcast the World Cup soccer tournament in June. As a result, forecasting the company’s earnings is more challenging this year.

TWST: And your rating there?

Ms. Goldwasser: It’s a long-term buy. I think Univision over the long term is the clear beneficiary of the growing Hispanic population in the US and, even more importantly, the increasing interest among advertisers reaching Latino consumers.

TWST: And that has improved considerably, has it not?

Ms. Goldwasser: Yes. Every day, every week, we hear about new advertisers who are suddenly discovering the Hispanic opportunity. But there’s a long way to go.

TWST: What can be done to change that perception, do you think?

Ms. Goldwasser: I think the census helped quite a bit. The 2000 Census really opened people’s eyes because it highlighted how big and how powerful the Hispanic population is in the US. However, I think it’s going to be a matter of blocking and tackling and having the leading Spanish-language media companies like Univision, Hispanic Broadcasting and Entravision continually telling the story and helping advertisers understand that they can grow their businesses more easily and more quickly if they address this consumer segment that previously they might have ignored.

TWST: Is there an overall message to investors who are looking at the world of radio?

Ms. Goldwasser: Yes. I think you have to have a high quality screen and invest in the well-managed companies with leadership positions in their markets. I also believe that investors need to have a sensitivity to valuation at this point. Valuations are rich relative to historical standards — even if you assume that there is some upside to my radio revenue outlook for the year of 2%. Look for quality companies with solid financial positions at reasonable prices.

This special issue includes:

1) Broadcasting Industry - In an in-depth (11,400 words) Analyst Roundtable, Frank Bonechak, Founder of Edge Capital, James Marsh Jr., Managing Director at Robinson Stephens and Leland Westerfield, Director for the Communications Group at UBS Warburg, examine the outlook for the sector including regulatory outlook, cross-ownership rules and share specific stock recommendations.

2) TWST confidential Off-The-Record survey of management performance of seventeen sector firms asked market insiders about the ability of management teams to create shareholder value.

3) Radio & Spanish Language Broadcasters - In an in-depth (3,900 words) Interview, Alissa Goldwasser, Research Analyst at William Blair & Company, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of seven sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: UVN

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 04/22/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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