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Analyst still favors Entercom Full article published: 04/23/2002     ALISSA GOLDWASSER is a Research Analyst at William Blair & Company


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Four analysts and top management from seven sector firms examine the broadcasting sector in this special 57-page Broadcasting Industry issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info531.htm

TWST: Will you begin by telling us about the performance of the radio stocks and the Spanish language broadcasters in the second half of 2001 and in 2002 year to date?

Ms. Goldwasser: It was a very tough period generally for advertising-based businesses. What we learned throughout the period beginning in the second half of 2000 through the end of last year is that Spanish-language media outperforms general market media in good times and bad. I estimate that Spanish-language media revenues increased 4% in 2001 compared to a decline of 6% for the general ad market. Clearly, there were several things going on in 2001 that made it an unusually difficult advertising environment for all broadcasters. In the beginning of the year, broadcasters struggled with the disappearance of dot-com advertising. Then, the economy proved to be dramatically weaker than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year. Finally, the tragedy of September 11 and the impact it had on advertisers’ willingness to spend took its toll on industry revenue in the fourth quarter. From what I can tell, the ad market did not deteriorate further in the first quarter of 2002, but the recovery will likely be gradual, not robust.

TWST: For the most part, how did the radio stations operators approach the advertising conundrum in the days following the events of September 11?

Ms. Goldwasser: Different broadcasters seemed to handle it in different ways, according to media buyers we’ve spoken with recently. Some broadcasters and stations allowed their advertisers to cancel advertising. They tried to work with their advertising clients, understanding the sensitivity that was necessary in those days following September 11. Other broadcasters were less gracious, and that might come back to haunt some of those stations that didn't treat their advertisers as partners in the last quarter of last year.

TWST: How would you assess the impact of the downturn in ad spending on the broadcasters that you follow?

Ms. Goldwasser: None of the broadcasters was immune. Radio industry revenue declined 7% in 2001 with comparable declines in each quarter of the year. I think September 11 caused what could have been recovery in the fourth quarter to be another trouncing.

TWST: Do you still like Entercom (NYSE:ETM)?

Ms. Goldwasser: I do. I believe Entercom is one of the best pure-play English-language radio broadcasters. I think it will succeed in growing organically faster than the industry over time, and the company also has the opportunity to grow through acquisition. So Entercom is one of the core names that I’m recommending to investors in radio broadcasting.

TWST: Are there any concerns that investors should be aware of with Entercom?

Ms. Goldwasser: I think investors should be aware that there is a concentration of stations that the company owns in the Pacific Northwest, which seems to be having a more difficult time shaking off the downturn than other parts of the country. However, Entercom is such an adept radio operator and they’re seeing success in so many other markets that I think this is a very manageable and known risk for 2002.

TWST: Is there another that you particularly like that there’s a compelling reason to buy at this time?

Ms. Goldwasser: Well, if you’re going to consider Entercom, you also have to consider Cox Radio. These are my two favorite names in radio broadcasting because their management teams are so strong and because they operate quality properties in good markets. Cox Radio’s markets, because they tend to be concentrated in the Southeast, are growing faster than Entercom’s. I think both companies will succeed in taking share from other participants in the markets where they compete. Cox Radio’s and Entercom’s stations overlap only in one market.

This special issue includes:

1) Broadcasting Industry - In an in-depth (11,400 words) Analyst Roundtable, Frank Bonechak, Founder of Edge Capital, James Marsh Jr., Managing Director at Robinson Stephens and Leland Westerfield, Director for the Communications Group at UBS Warburg, examine the outlook for the sector including regulatory outlook, cross-ownership rules and share specific stock recommendations.

2) TWST confidential Off-The-Record survey of management performance of seventeen sector firms asked market insiders about the ability of management teams to create shareholder value.

3) Radio & Spanish Language Broadcasters - In an in-depth (3,900 words) Interview, Alissa Goldwasser, Research Analyst at William Blair & Company, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of seven sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: ETM

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 04/22/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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