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Brunswick managed through the downturn extremely well, praises Analyst Full article published: 04/12/2002     DEAN GIANOUKOS is an Analyst that follows the leisure industry for J.P. Morgan Chase


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Two analyst, one expert and top management from six sector firms examine the leisure products & theme parks sector in this special 38-page Leisure Products & Theme Parks issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info523.htm.

TWST: Let’s start with the theme parks and the cruise lines, which should be regarded as destinations. To what extent have these sectors been affected by the recession and the events of September 11?

Mr. Gianoukos: Both the cruise lines and the regional theme park operators were affected greatly. The cruise lines saw a dramatic drop in bookings and prices for the few months around the 11th, as did the theme parks. Luckily for the theme parks, they start to close after Labor Day, so they were not really exposed to those events for as long as the cruise lines. Additionally, they don’t get back into full operation until Memorial Day. As a result, by the time they open up full-time things will be better.

TWST: Let’s talk about Brunswick (NYSE:BC). One would assume that boats would be hard hit by the recession. Did that in fact happen?

Mr. Gianoukos: Yes, they were. Boat sales were down quite a bit. Brunswick managed through the downturn extremely well. Back in 1991, they lost quite a bit of money, while in 2001 they made $0.96. We think that’s a credit to the management team, which has done a great job. They have cut out six plants and really rationalized their manufacturing process and we believe there may still be room to improve. The great thing about Brunswick is that there are two issues working in the company’s favor. There is the turnaround aspect, and as the economy gets better the company should have revenue growth as boat sales improve. The boat cycle has a .75 correlation to GDP, so if the economy continues to improve, the combination of rising boat sales and turning around the company should lead to some pretty good earnings growth, and a good stock.

TWST: In the meantime, what’ s your advice to investors?

Mr. Gianoukos: We tell people if you have a two-year time horizon, you want to own this stock. We think it’s the best stock in our universe over a two-year time horizon. Our only fear with BC is that if the economy doesn’t continue to move up and boat sales stall, you’re not going to get the kind of growth that people are starting to expect. And given that the stock’s had a tremendous move, investors may need to be patient. We still think that at some point over the next two years, this is a mid-$30s to mid-$40s stock, which implies a lot of upside.

TWST: Overall, Dean, what would your message be to investors who are wondering whether leisure products and leisure time stocks are a place to put money this year?

Mr. Gianoukos: We would say you need to watch the stocks closely. They tend to be very volatile and, to a large degree, are trading stocks. So we try to pick the right entry points by sticking with historical valuations. There is a lot of money to be made in this sector because the stocks tend to move around so much, but at the same time, if you come in at the high end, there’s money to be lost as well.

This special issue includes:

1) Leisure Activity & Recreational Products - In an in-depth (2,900 words) Analyst Interview, Timothy A. Conder, Vice President at.G. Edwards & Sons, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

2) Leisure Activity & Recreational Products - In an in-depth (3,700 words) Analyst Interview, Dean Gianoukos, Analyst that follows the leisure industry at J.P.Morgan Chase, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

3) Outlook for Them Parks - In an in-depth (4,500 words) Expert Interview, Dennis L. Speigel, President of International Theme Park Services, Inc., examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of six sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: BC

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 04/08/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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  • Leisure
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