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Harley-Davidson has held up extremely well, reports Analyst Full article published: 04/09/2002     TIMOTHY A. CONDER is a Vice President at A.G.Edwards & Sons


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Two analyst, one expert and top management from six sector firms examine the leisure products & theme parks sector in this special 38-page Leisure Products & Theme Parks issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info523.htm.

TWST: Tim, how well have the stocks of the recreational products companies and leisure activity companies that you follow rewarded investors over the past 12 months?

Mr. Conder: They are getting back to — and in some cases slightly exceeding — the levels they were at pre-September 11. But especially since September 11, the stocks have performed exceptionally well (in some instances, up over 100%). We continue to believe that this is just the start of a substantial outperformance for 2002 as well as 2003.

TWST: Have any companies or segments been perhaps surprisingly resilient?

Mr. Conder: Brunswick (NYSE:BC), which is primarily a marine manufacturer, was up over 30% in 2001. Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HDI) has also held up extremely well. From a rebound perspective, the cruise companies have rebounded very sharply as the booking vacuum created by September 11 has basically been filled. It still has a little ways to go, but it’s coming back very nicely. Therefore, the equities have come back as well.

TWST: Would you give us some detail on new products or new projects that Harley-Davidson is introducing in connection with the 100th anniversary?

Mr. Conder: To be honest, they’ve been pretty tight-lipped about that. We anticipate that they will unveil their 100th anniversary products in July. I can tell you that this month dealers here have started to receive a few limited skus of some of the 100th anniversary garments, such as a couple of jackets, just to whet everyone’s appetite. The major product rollouts will come along with the new bikes in July, which will be available in August. The other thing that we’ve heard is when people see a 100th anniversary edition motorcycle out on the road, they will be able to quickly recognize it as a 100th anniversary edition. Our view is that you will not see that much from a technological perspective for the 100th anniversary models. It will be more focused on actually being a 100th anniversary year edition product. In model year 2004, we believe you’ll see quite a few new technological and innovative products being introduced.

TWST: In the past, I understand that supply has never quite kept up with demand. Do you see that changing at all?

Mr. Conder: That’s actually still the case. You still see demand exceeding supply, and that’s evidenced by dealers who sell at MSRP (manufacturer’s suggested retail price). Dealers who sell at that price typically have waiting lists and you continue to see waiting lists at MSRP dealers. Dealers who sell at what would be called market price — i.e., a premium over MSRP — are continuing to garner fairly decent premiums in the neighborhood of 12%-15%. The used market remains very strong as well. So all indicators point to the fact that supply remains less than the demand that’s out there.

TWST: Tim, what’s your overall message to investors who are considering where to put their money as we move into the second half of 2002?

Mr. Conder: I would encourage them to look at how these stocks have performed in past slow and/or recessionary periods. As I said before, I think we will continue to see gradual improvement in the economy for 2002 and a very good performance in 2003. That, coupled with the fact that most of these companies are leaders in their respective leisure subindustry categories, positions these companies to outperform in 2002 as well as 2003 in both the sector and relative to the S&P 500.

This special issue includes:

1) Leisure Activity & Recreational Products - In an in-depth (2,900 words) Analyst Interview, Timothy A. Conder, Vice President at.G. Edwards & Sons, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

2) Leisure Activity & Recreational Products - In an in-depth (3,700 words) Analyst Interview, Dean Gianoukos, Analyst that follows the leisure industry at J.P.Morgan Chase, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

3) Outlook for Them Parks - In an in-depth (4,500 words) Expert Interview, Dennis L. Speigel, President of International Theme Park Services, Inc., examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of six sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: HDI

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 04/08/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

SECTOR LINKS

  • Consumer Products
  • Leisure
  • Media
  • Retail


     

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