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Manpower has the potential to be a very strong performer, reports Analyst Full article published: 03/21/2002     JOSHUA ROSEN is an Analyst that covers the HR and professional services industry for the CSFB Global Services Team at Credit Suisse First Boston


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Five analysts and top management from forty-five sector firms examine the Credit Suisse First Boston 4th Annual Global Services Growth Conference in this special 177-page issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info509.htm

TWST: How valid are the traditional growth characteristics in today’s investment environment? How true to form with respect to those characteristics are the companies in your specific coverage area?

Mr. Rosen: There has been a growing acceptance of the services business model among the investment community over the past few years. A few of the key reasons are stable, secular growth; solid margin structures; utilization of technology to enhance productivity; and low capital requirements, which leads to very strong cash flow characteristics. That’s been a pretty good recipe for investment success for the last few years. Now, these reasons vary across sectors. Our area, business services, is much more cyclical in nature than some of the other services names. So a few of those characteristics don’t apply to a portion of my coverage universe, particularly stable and predictable growth. As a few of these names are much more cyclical, they experience pretty significant volatility from quarter to quarter. But underlying that, the long-term growth trends are really quite strong. So they are still good places to put money long term.

TWST: These companies don't necessarily go in for a lot of debt on the balance sheet. Is that mentality changing, or has it changed?

Mr. Rosen: It hasn’t changed much, and the largest reason for the fact that services companies don’t take on a lot of debt is because they don’t need a lot of debt. These businesses are not capital-intensive. They like to maintain the flexibility of a clean balance sheet for stock repurchases, acquisitions and reinvestment in their own business.

TWST: With valuations, are we entering a period where, no matter what, it’s going to be favorable? Is there more to be examined than just the gross year-over-year comparisons and valuations?

Mr. Rosen: Certainly there is. As a group, we spend a lot of time on valuation, particularly as it relates to cash flow metrics. Within the business services stocks that we focus on, we saw a pretty strong cyclical rally at the end of 2001. A lot of the stocks have really held on to the gains they made from October through December. We’re actually on the sidelines within business services right now, with a feeling that the stocks are reflecting an improved economy. Even if we do get positive economic news, in large part we think the stocks reflect that and valuations have perhaps gotten a little bit ahead of themselves. That being said, we think that there’s a good chance, as we move through the latter half of 2002, that the risk/reward dynamics will finally shift on these stocks to the point where there’s some potential for outperformance from an earnings standpoint, as compared to underperformance. However, the next few quarters have a much higher degree of risk on the downside than they do to the upside, as it relates to earnings.

TWST: Burrowing down, what are the key elements of your assessments for these companies over the next 12 months?

Mr. Rosen: The staffing services industry is a fairly well developed industry, although it’s still pretty fragmented in the US. The one name that we monitor extremely closely for potential changes is Manpower (NYSE:MAN) because that’s a company that has the potential to be a very strong performer if they are able to improve their margin structure. They’ve made some headway on this front, but frankly the economic woes across the globe have really made it difficult to articulate how much progress they’ve made — their revenue decline has been pretty substantial across the board. So it really masks any improvements that they’ve been able to make internally. Coming out of this downturn, Manpower definitely merits close watch.

This special conference issue includes:

1) Global Services Outlook - In an in-depth (3,300 words) Analyst Interview, Greg W. Cappelli, Managing Director and Senior Analyst responsible for heading the research coverage of CSFB's Global Services Team at Credit Suisse First Boston, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

2) Professional & Educational Services - In an in-depth (2,500 words) Analyst Interview, Greg W. Cappelli, Managing Director and Senior Analyst responsible for heading the research coverage of CSFB's Global Services Team at Credit Suisse First Boston, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

3) HR & Professional Services Industry - In an in-depth (2,600 words) Analyst Interview, Joshua Rosen, Analyst that covers the HR and professional services industry for the CSFB Global Services Team at Credit Suisse First Boston, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) European Support Services Stocks - In an in-depth (2,600 words) Analyst Interview, Andrew Sweeting, Research Analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

5) Education & Business Services Companies - In an in-depth (4,300 words) Analyst Interview, Brandon Dobell, Analyst that covers education and business services companies for Credit Suisse First Boston, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

6) Payment Processing & Information Services - In an in-depth (4,100 words) Analyst Interview, Dris Upitis, Senior Equity Research Analyst who focuses on the payment processing and information services sectors for CSFB's Global Services Team at Credit Suisse First Boston, examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

7) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of forty-five sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: MAN

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 03/17/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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