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ROUNDTABLE FORUM: HOMEBUILDING INDUSTRY


Full article published: 03/11/2002


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TWST: Despite the weakness in the economy, new and existing home sales broke records in 2001 with mortgages that originated last year apparently reaching an historic high of 2 trillion. What chance does 2002 have of beating or, for that matter, meeting last year's numbers?
Mr. Campbell: From a mortgage ori-gination standpoint there's probably not much of a chance, but that's simply because you had such a large amount of refi activity in 2001. From a mortgage purchasing standpoint, as it relates to homebuilding in general, we're looking for the housing markets to be roughly flat to slightly down in 2002, relative to 2001. Nonetheless, we're obvi-ously looking for housing activity to remain near the record levels that we set in 2001. So there will be some moderation, although no-thing significant, and by and large we expect that as the economy continues to firm and/or turn up, it should have a positive effect on housing, particularly as we move into the latter stages of the year.

TWST: Joe, how do you see 2002 shaping up, compared to 2001?
Mr. Sroka: I think 2002 should be a good year for the publicly traded homebuilding companies. Even if the overall housing economy were to be flat to down slightly, the key thing to keep in mind is that the public companies are gaining market share, both organically and through some consolidation activity. I would anticipate that they should outperform the housing economy in general, and if that's flat to down slightly, most of the companies should have a good year relative to 2001.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: BZH, CROS, CTX, DHI, FNM, FRE, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.