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Analyst favors SunTrust Full article published: 01/24/2002     NANCY A. BUSH is a Managing Director at Ryan, Beck & Co., LLC


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Five analysts and top management from twenty-five sector firms examine the eastern regional banks sector in this special 127-page Eastern Regional Banks issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info481.htm.

TWST: What is your outlook for 2002? What are your favorite stocks today?

Ms. Bush: My outlook is pretty simple, and I think this kind of tacks on to what Chris may have said here. There were some stocks that performed pretty poorly in 2001 that I think are going to do much better in 2002, one of them being State Street (NYSE:STT). Another company that I like a lot is SunTrust (NYSE:STI). SunTrust has benefited from the fight with First Union over Wachovia in that I think there was a certain quality of, well, passivity on the part of that company that has now been overcome. They are much more proactive than I’ve ever seen them before in addressing issues of efficiency and issues of business performance throughout their company. This is another company that is significant in the investment management business and where underlying progress in that business is being masked by this issue of net asset valuation — an issue that will be overcome with better market trends. STI will also benefit from several other issues. I think they’re going to be one of the few companies with a seemingly low level of loan loss reserves for loans that won’t have to blow up their earnings. I’m going to knock wood here when I say that, but I think that they will emerge from this recession as they emerged from the last one — with their credit quality and their capital structure and reputation for quality largely intact. I think they will get increased recognition as a safe holding, as they always have. Their stock has suffered since the Crestar deal, which was admittedly an expensive and disruptive one, and I’m convinced that there’s not another large dilutive acquisition out there in the future for them.

TWST: Nancy, as your final word, what would your advice be to investors as they look at the Eastern banks for 2002?

Ms. Bush: I don’t expect, as a whole (whether we’re talking about Eastern banks, Midwestern banks or whatever), the kind of relative outperformance that we had in 2001, which as Gerard said was pretty massive relative to the market by dint of not being down nearly as much. I do think we will get a better absolute performance from the banks and from the Eastern banks. But I think everybody’s got to come back to reality here about what is a normal return in a stock and, certainly, what is a normal return in a bank stock. And my advice is to not forget about dividends. The level of dividends is one thing, but the growth of dividends is something else. I think the dividend discount model is something that is alive, well, and working at the edges here, and some of these companies have grown their dividends pretty well over the years. I do expect a better absolute performance from the stocks, but I don’t expect anything that’s going to put them up there as gainers with the tech stocks of the days of old. This is the year, I think, whether you’re looking at a bank stock or anything else, to be an investor. And I hope that if we’ve learned one thing over the last few years as a society, it’s that investment is not holding for three weeks: it’s not day-trading. It is that you buy these companies where you believe the managements and the strategies are sound, you look for good dividend growth, you look for strong capital structures, and you stay the course.

This special issue includes:

1) Eastern Regional Banks - In an in-depth (13,500 words) Analyst Roundtable, Nancy A. Bush, Managing Director at Ryan Beck & Co., Gerard S. Cassidy, Managing Director of Equity Research at RBC Capital Markets and Christopher Marinac, Managing Director at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, examine the outlook for the sector including stock performance in 2001, regulatory outlook and share specific stock recommendations.

2) Super-Regional Banks - In an in-depth (4,100 words) Analyst Interview, Jennifer A. Thompson, Analyst at Putnam Lovell Securities, Inc., examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

3) Eastern Banks - In an in-depth (3,100 words) Analyst Interview, Jacqueline Reeves, Managing Director at Putnam Lovell Securities, Inc., examines the outlook for the sector including and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) The TWST confidential Off-The-Record survey of management performance of nineteen sector firms asked market insiders about the ability of management teams to create shareholder value.

5) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of twenty-five sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: STI

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Eastern Regional Banks Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 01/21/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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  • Banks/Brokers
  • Insurance
  • Real Estate/REITs


     

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