For Subscribers

Get the complete article now!

Four analysts and top management from twenty-two sector firms examine the comunications services sector in this special 98-page Comunications Services issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info470.htm.

TWST: Why doesn’t the market recognize this?

Mr. Grover: Because the Street has thrown everything out! That’s kind of the point of this interview, that “emerging” and “telecommunications” have become dirty words, and the Street has just shot everything. That’s why I think investors must be discriminating. Fortunately for me, I think I’ve stock-picked the right companies in general. I’ve made some mistakes, but I think in general the companies we’re talking about are the real winners here. And the Street has crushed the stocks anyway, so some of these stocks are at bargain basement prices. Another company I’d look at would be Infonet (NYSE:IN). They’re kind of comparable to EQUANT. They were founded in 1969. They were originally the time-share network for mainframe computing for Computer Sciences Corp. (NYSE:CSC). They realized there was an opportunity to sell access to that network. They ultimately commercialized the business in 1988, made it an independent company, and today it is a network that hits 180 countries. They have 2,400 of the world’s largest enterprises as customers, 700 million in revenues, almost 500 million in net cash. They’ve been EBITDA-positive for 15 years and will be free-cash-flow positive next calendar year. If you look at it, it’s got 1 a share in net cash, or 0.5 billion in cash, and is trading near 2, so a half multiple in revenues and 2 times net cash — that’s unbelievable!

TWST: You’ve made it clear that there are a lot of opportunities out there.

Mr. Grover: There are, and we could talk about 10 more — there’s a lot of garbage, though. Those are some ideas.

TWST: One more question, then. When you put it together, what would your overall message be to investors who are wondering whether this is the time to jump back into the space or to investors who have not been in it but realize that they need to have some exposure to emerging telecommunications services?

Mr. Grover: The message would be don’t believe the hype. I think there is a glut of bandwidth. Telecommunications is not going to zero, it’s not going away; it’s a very tangible business. You don’t need to be a genius to know that teledensity around the world is very low and rising. Markets are deregulating. Competitive carriers have less than 10% market share worldwide, and in the US the CLECs have only 8% market share. So this is a growth industry. And if you can pick the right basket of companies and have the right horizon, I think there are going to be some very big moves that come out of this group as the market growth starts to trickle down to these winners. It’s going to take a lot of courage to invest in the space. But if you invest using a basket approach and don’t just put it all on one horse, I think you can prudently play the growth. Anybody who puts it all in one company, I think, will lose some sleep at night. I wouldn’t recommend that. And I would add that in the context of investors seeking safety, there has been, I think, a false thesis perpetrated on the Street that investing in incumbents, including the regional Bells and some of the entrenched carriers abroad, provides some sort of safe haven. If you look at the regional Bells, for example, most of their growth has come from dubious practices. They have negative in-region line growth. They’re very exposed to attrition.

This special issue includes:

1) Communications Services & Equipment - In an in-depth (4,500 words) Analyst Interview, Rick Franklin & Gary Mobley, both Senior Industry Analysts at Bank of America Capital Management, examine the outlook for the sector and share specific stock recommendations.

2) Emerging Communications - In an in-depth (4,100 words) Analyst Interview, Vik Grover, Managing Director at Kaufman Bros., L.P., examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

3) CLEC & Incumbents - In an in-depth (4,300 words) Analyst Interview, Thomas Morabito, First Vice President/Senior Telecom Analyst at McDonald Investments, Inc., examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of twenty-two sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.