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Off The Record: Top Banking Analyst believes First Tennessee will do well Full article published: 11/14/2001     Money Managers, Analysts, Buysiders and Executives


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FIRST TENNESSEE NATIONAL CORPORATION (NYSE:FTN);

Five analysts and top management from ten sector firms examine the banking sector in this special 71-page South & SouthEastern Regional Banks issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info449.htm

“I think First Tennessee will do well,” remarks a top banking analyst. “The stock has benefited this year from the lower interest rate environment. First Tennessee’s capital markets and mortgage banking businesses benefit from the lower rates. I think next year, while we'll clearly get back to a rising interest rate environment, First Tennessee will put down numbers ahead of expectations, as First Tennessee will benefit from the buildout of additional products from their capital markets unit, as well as from the rationalization they undertook in the mortgage banking business last year.”

“I think First Tennessee is doing a really good job,” another leading analyst concurs. “In 2000 there were a couple of missteps in their earnings reports. There was some weakness with First Tennessee’s mortgage operation. They had a pretty large wholesale mortgage operation that got fully staffed precisely at the moment that the wholesale mortgage business became unprofitable. First Tennessee didn’t recognize it until then. It was the only year in the last 10 or 15 years where First Tennessee’s earnings actually declined from prior years. CEO Ralph Horn made the decision to do a couple of things then. One was to decrease First Tennessee reliance on the wholesale mortgage business, while still growing the retail business. Also, to make First Tennessee’s earnings stream a little less sensitive to interest rates, or a little less volatile, Horn started diversifying the product offering in the capital markets business. Primarily, as rates went down, First Tennessee was doing extremely well, and as rates went up, they suffered. At least that was the perception on the Street. Now there is more business being done. First Tennessee is rolling out some brokerage operations to smaller banks that don’t have the resources to build it out themselves. They entered into some partnering agreements for equity research. They’re having a tremendous amount of success with capital raises, particularly trust deferred pools for banks. In the last year to 18 months, their work pool has raised over $1 billion in trust deferred capital in this pool format. All of those things are helping the earnings stream out. It’s not going to be as volatile as it was. First Tennessee has blown through the numbers that were out there for the third quarter. They came out and said that the estimate on the Street for the third quarter is too low, the estimate for the year is too low and everybody needs to pay more attention, run a better model and raise their estimates. Then First Tennessee beat those numbers once they were revised up.

This special issue includes:

1) South & SouthEastern Regional Banks - In an in-depth (14,000 words) Analyst Roundtable, Jeff Davis, Analyst covering regional banks at Midwest Research, Inc., Charles N. Ernst, Vice President at Putnam Lovell Securities, Inc., Jefferson L. Harralson, Vice President at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Capital Markets and Christopher M. Mutascio, Principal at Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc., examine the outlook for the sector including investment approach, credit quality and share specific stock recommendations.

2) Regional Bank Stocks - In an in-depth (3,300 words) Analyst Interview, Gary B. Townsend, Senior Analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

3) The TWST confidential Off-The-Record survey of management performance at thirteen sector firms asked market insiders about the ability of management teams to create shareholder value.

4) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of nine sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: FTN

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive management survey published in The Wall Street Transcript on 11/12/01. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2001, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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