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Global Crossing is well positioned for the next uptick in the network-centric computing environment, reports Analyst Full article published: 10/19/2001     VIK GROVER is Managing Director of Equity Research at Kaufman Bros., L.P. covering the wireline services industry


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Four analysts and top management from thirty-one sector firms examine the Technology sector in this special 120-page Kaufman Bros., L.P. Emerging Communications Conference issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info431.htm.

TWST: What is the backdrop for the Emerging Communications Conference and Kaufman’s coverage of the space?

Mr. Grover: We have been evolving our focus on the communications space using a life cycle approach. We have senior analysts covering most of the verticals that are important — all the way from the contract manufacturers to telecom equipment providers, OSS providers, infrastructure service providers that are actually building the networks, wireless service companies, emerging wireline service providers and Internet/media. An obvious gap is the chip space, which we do intend to fill. We’re also working on storage and security as two additional verticals.

TWST: How do you convince an investor to disconnect the “death by association” that communications companies have with the failure of many CLECs and emerging telcos, along with the failure of the Internet infrastructure companies to take full advantage of all the capital they have invested over the past three to five years? We went through this bug build-out and nobody showed up.

Mr. Grover: There are some things you can point to that are signs of hope. One sign is that traffic continues to swell. Even the most bearish predictions call for traffic growth of 100% year over year, and studies of individuals who are very well-regarded in the industry suggest that it’s actually growing at 300%-400% — depending on how you measure it. So whether you want to take the low end of that range or the high end of that range, it’s still growing at a tremendous clip. Also of importance is the thesis that emerging telecom providers of bandwidth actually lead the tech cycle. They have to get healthy as a group before any of the other parts of the value chain can get healthy, and before any of the contractors, OSS vendors, equipment providers, software companies, manufacturing companies or chip companies can get healthy. Because network-centric computing is the paradigm shift that drives the whole tech sector now — in our view — you would want to buy the leading indicator for all those other sectors, and that is the emerging communication service provider space. If you want to move downstream and get a little more aggressive, there are companies out there that have tremendous assets that provide opportunities — Global Crossing (NYSE:GX), for example. The stock today is under tremendous pressure, because management has indicated that they have seen a hiccup in the capacity sales market that is impacting the company’s near-term results. The stock recently was trading at $1. I believe the company is fully funded. The company is looking to merge with Asia Global Crossing (NYSE:AX), its 59%-owned subsidiary, and to divest non-core businesses, including its Global Marine undersea systems integration business, and also IPC, which is a financial systems integrator. Those businesses combined could fetch upward of $1 billion, according to our estimates, or roughly 5-6 times cash flow. Global Crossing has $2.4 billion in cash, and even if you have a very pessimistic view of 2002, the capacity sales market should come back in earnest, because nobody else is building networks. Global Crossing has an $11 billion network that is done; it’s ready to go, and the organization is well positioned for the next uptick in the network-centric computing environment.

This special conference issue includes:

1) Outlook for Emerging Communications - In an in-depth (2,400 words) Analyst Interview, Craig D. Kaufman, Chairman and CEO of Kaufman Bros., L.P., examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

2) Emerging Communications: An Overview - In an in-depth (4,800 words) Analyst Interview, Vik Grover, Managing Director of Equity Research at Kaufman Bros., L.P., examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

3) Wireless Services & Carriers - In an in-depth (1,300 words) Analyst Interview, Douglas Makin, Investment Analyst for Kaufman Bros., L.P., examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) Network Infrastructure Services - In an in-depth (2,800 words) Analyst Interview, Erik Warren, Vice President of Equity Research at Kaufman Bros., L.P., examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

5) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of thirty-one sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: GX

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 10/15/01. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2001, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

SECTOR LINKS

  • Computers & Electronics
  • Internet, Software & Services
  • Telecommunications


     

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