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Analyst recommends Manulife Full article published: 09/06/2001     MICHELLE A. GIORDANO is the Senior Life Insurance Analyst in the Equity Research Group of J.P. Morgan Securities, Inc.


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Three analysts and top management from five sector firms examine the Life Insurance sector in this special 43-page issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info411.htm

TWST: Michelle, what stands out in your mind as you look back over 2001 and consider the performance of the group?

Ms. Giordano: I think the group has modestly outperformed the S&P 500, partially because the life insurance group looks somewhat like a safe haven versus other financials. Earnings growth has slowed this year, though. Last year the group achieved somewhere around 14% earnings growth, and this year it looks like the group may only generate about 7% earnings growth. But despite the slowdown in earnings growth, I think the group is looked upon as a safe haven, and that’s the reason why the stocks are performing modestly well.

TWST: Michelle, is a turnaround in earnings in 2002 achievable, in your view?

Ms. Giordano: I would agree with Al that you do have to have a turnaround in the equity market. Basically, what I am forecasting is roughly about 7%-8% equity market appreciation in 2002. In addition, we expect 3%-4% market appreciation in the third and fourth quarter of 2001. If these both occur, I think those earnings expectations can be met. Anything less than that (in terms of equity market appreciation) would cause earnings growth to slow because roughly 30% of industry earnings are linked to the equity markets.

TWST: And what’s your rationale for recommending Manulife (NYSE:MFC)?

Ms. Giordano: With Manulife, we’ve got a couple of key points. First, this is another company where I believe management is extremely focused on effectively using capital. It deploys capital into some of the fastest growth products and segments around the world. It is extremely well-positioned in high growth geographic markets; for instance, in the US they’re well-positioned in variable annuities and they target the high net worth market on the life insurance side. In Asia, it is extremely well-positioned in Hong Kong, where it is ranked number two, and it has done very well selling into the new market, the Mandatory Provident Fund. In addition, it acquired the failed insurer Daihyaku in Japan, which has propelled its position forward in Japan, and I think the Asian business sets them up for a nice opportunity to help improve returns over time. Manulife is also likely to benefit, one way or another, from upcoming regulatory changes in Canada, which would allow two of the smaller, publicly traded companies, Canada Life (NYSE:CLU) or Clarica (TSE:CLI.TO) to be acquired. Manulife owns about 7.9% of Canada Life, and we suspect it owns somewhere around 5% of Clarica. We think Manulife could make a bid for, and get, one of these two companies, which would propel its position in Canada, namely in the pension/401(k) market, and accelerate earnings growth in the more modest growth areas in Canada. Alternatively, another company could outbid Manulife and Manulife could win on its investment. Lastly, I think management is very conservative on the accounting front, and we continue to have a lot of confidence in the management. We’ve got a C50 price target, or 33 US price target here, and our earnings estimates in Canadian dollars are 2.5 and 2.85 for 2001 and 2002, and 1.63 and 1.86 in US dollars.

This special conference issue includes:

1) Life Insurance - In an in-depth (12,600 words) Analyst Roundtable, Alfred M. Capra, Managing Director at Putnam Lovell Securities Inc., Colin Devine, Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney Inc. and Michelle A. Giordano, Vice President at J.P. Morgan Chase, examine the outlook for the sector including, reinsurance, Estate planning changes and share specific stock recommendations.

2) The TWST confidential Off-The-Record survey of management performance at twenty sector firms asked market insiders about the ability of management teams to create shareholder value.

3) CEO and Sponsored interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of five sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: MFC

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Life Insurance Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 09/03/01. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2001, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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