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Analyst comments on AT&T Full article published: 04/03/2001     ROBERT B. WILKES is a Vice President at Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder, Inc.


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TWST: So you look primarily at the RBOCs?

Mr. Wilkes: Yes, the large RBOCs, which are local exchange carriers, and the interexchange or long distance carriers, although the distinctions there are certainly in the process of blurring.

TWST: Would you explain that?

Mr. Wilkes: There used to be local exchange carriers and long distance companies. As the local exchange carriers obtain authorization to offer long distance and the long distance companies begin to provide local service to varying degrees, I expect segmentation by local and long distance will gradually disappear. However, it’s going to take a while to get to that point.

TWST: Robert, in your view, what are the factors that have contributed most to the performance of the stocks, particularly the decline in the stock prices? Have the fundamentals of the business changed at all?

Mr. Wilkes: In my view, you could look at last year in several segments. In the early part of 2000, when the NASDAQ was soaring, the big wireline local exchange companies or ILECs were generally underperforming. Starting in mid- to late summer, when access to capital really came to be a front and center issue, money invested in the telecommunications services space really started moving aggressively into the safest part of the space, which was perceived to be the ILECs. This aggressive movement resulted in very strong relative performance for the ILEC company shares relative to the large drops experienced by the shares of most other service providers.

TWST: Robert, will you comment on AT&T (NYSE:T)?

Mr. Wilkes: I think a lot of the excitement out there has to do with the estimated breakup value, or piece part valuation, of AT&T, and I mentioned some of my cautionary comments on piece part valuation earlier. I think Michael Armstrong is pretty smart, but over the last year or two he’s had a tendency to buy high and sell low, which I think has done a lot of damage to the company. So while AT&T stock is probably selling below what a lot of the piece part valuations are, it’s hard for me to get excited about it overall at this point. I think there may be a bit more value in the consumer piece than what Gary suggested, but whether it’s $0.50 or $1.50, there’s not that much difference in terms of the overall effect on AT&T stock. Their broadband business is one where there is a lot of potential, and Michael Armstrong could be correct in trying to become CEO of that portion of the current AT&T business. The wireless business, as I indicated earlier, might have some disappointment near term, so that is one where I would be a little bit cautious. In the business segment, revenues have been flat recently; in contrast, many other companies have been showing an awful lot of growth in the space. So I think the business segment is a part of the business where there is potential for further disappointment. This segment is an important part of an AT&T valuation; improved performance would help move the stock forward from here.

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Wireline Services/CLECs Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 04/02/01. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2001, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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