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Analyst highlights Hilton Group in Wall Street Transcript Interview Full article published: 02/27/2001     VIRGINIE LANNEVERE is an Analyst covering the European leisure sector for HSBC


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TWST: Virginie, would you mind starting us off with a definition of the universe that you’re following please: how is it characterised?

Ms. Lannevere: I specialise in lodgings, cruises, and football stocks.

TWST: What do you take to be the important measure of growth in the lodging sector, and what growth rate do you anticipate over the next 12 months?

Ms. Lannevere: I would say for lodging the key indicator is really what we call the revpar — revenue per available room; and my view is that we are seeing decelerating growth in revpar, and I am expecting for next year in the UK 3.5% revpar growth overall. In France, it’s a little bit higher because of lack of supply, so I am at 4.5% for France. And in the other territories in continental Europe I’m at 4% growth for the year.

TWST: How are the major players positioning their portfolios? What are they doing with new build? What’s the supply and capacity outlook?

Ms. Lannevere: At this time everybody seem to anticipate a slowdown in growth. Accor, for example, were announcing two years ago +10% per annum capacity increase, on a sustainable basis. For 2001 they are at +6%/+7%. So for people who have a very large portfolio, I think there is an immediate process of adaptation to the macroeconomic outlook. It doesn’t change long-term, but I just feel it’s a climate where it will be difficult to new-build and to fill the capacity as fast as they used to do it over the past four years, for example. I also think the capacity expansion is less in organic terms than small acquisitions going forward because the European market is still very fragmented. It’s not that simple to integrate different chains across territories, but it’s still the case that there is still room for acquiring small portfolios in different countries of Europe. This is what I am expecting for this year at least. Another trend which I think is really interesting in the UK lodging companies is the rationalisation of their portfolio in terms of the ownership structure. Traditionally, UK companies own their hotels; and so the balance sheet is probably not as efficient as it could be. Hilton (LSE:HG.L) announced its intention to dispose of some of their assets and this rationalisation should be welcomed by the market. I expect a few more UK operators to undergo such a face-lift of their portfolio in these times where balance sheet and cash will probably be more scrutinised.

TWST: Any risks in the stock, in your view?

Ms. Lannevere: Yes; what would be fairly negative for the stock is, for example, if they could not announce a distribution alliance, because now they have laid down their plan, they have to give evidence that it’s really happening. So I think the risk is more in terms of the corporate newsflow. As for operations, I track on a monthly basis the growth of the package holiday market in France, and over the past three months there was no sign of decline; on the contrary it was still at +12%+13% month after month. So I just don’t think the summer season for Club Med is looking bad at all.

Tickers included in this excerpt: HG.L

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 02/26/01. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2001, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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