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Analyst is positive on Colt in Wall Street Transcript Interview Full article published: 01/23/2001     THILO KUSCH is an Assistant Director in Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein's European telecommunications equity research team


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TWST: I know that there has been change at Colt (LSE:CTM.L) in the management team; how does that affect the company, do you think?

Mr. Kusch: It is definitely in terms of track record probably the best alternative operator you could buy in the past in Europe. Precisely because there is a lack of leadership at the moment there is some uncertainly there now. However, the performance of Colt was largely on the execution of the business plan, which naturally is done by the lower ranks rather than the head. It definitely needs and suffers from that; so we are positive on Colt.

TWST: Can we talk about the companies who are funding third generation licenses; can you firstly point out the salient differences between the licenses and technology, for example GPRS and UMTS?

Mr. Kusch: In Europe the mobile data evolution will go in stages. GSM networks are currently in place and they basically implement technology called GPRS, which is a mobile data packet switch technology which will enable these operators to offer proper mobile data services with speeds initially of 20 kilobits per second but in the short term up to 50 kilobits per second. And that will be the technology which is in place in terms of the networks but still suffers supply restrictions in terms of the handsets being available. The technology over the next six months will show us how mobile data services will develop. The next stage is the UMTS licenses, which will in our view be operational in 2003, so the service will develop over the next two years, and in 2003 the UMTS networks will come online and they will basically deliver two things. First, they are more efficient in the capacity they have available, and secondly, they just offer operators more spectrum, more capacity to expand further, in particular to offer higher-speed mobile data access services.

TWST: Are there any companies out there that are having problems funding their third generation licenses?

Mr. Kusch: In particular the number six, number five, number four operators which come new into the markets will really struggle to come up with a viable business case. In some of the business cases, if you add up the market shares in the different countries you basically come up with more than 100%, which will be the issue. Funding for these companies will become increasingly difficult, if they are not backed by one of the bigger players.

TWST: Are there any bottlenecks in handset manufacture, or do you foresee any?

Mr. Kusch: We do see precisely the handset manufacturer as the bottleneck for the development of the new services, because even though there might be demand for GPRS services, the handsets are not available. The same thing with WAP, everybody was very keen on having it, but it took a six months delay after the official announcements before handsets were available in large volume. We see the same the thing happening with GPRS, and we actually would expect a similar trend with UMTS

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 01/22/01. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2001, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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  • Computers & Electronics
  • Internet, Software & Services
  • Telecommunications


     

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