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PaineWebber Analyst emphasizes Tribune Full article published: 10/11/2000     LELAND WESTERFIELD is a First Vice President for the Communications Group in PaineWebber Equity Research


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TWST: Lee, from an investment standpoint as well as a business standpoint, are there characteristics associated with the television stocks that are different from those associated with the radio group?

Mr. Westerfield: Right away the obvious difference between radio and television is that radio, for the most part, does not acquire its programming externally. Television stations enter into agreements to redistribute the networks and also directly acquire programming from syndicators. So there are external costs to television stations that are largely not the case in radio.

TWST: Lee, any response?

Mr. Westerfield: One of the things that’s bewitching, not only to the broadcasting stocks but it also really hangs over so much of the media sector at the moment, is a continuing debate about advertising cycles. By any recognition, investors should be pleased with what’s ensuing in 2001 from this year. Rather than looking at what had been a historical pattern, where advertising would begin to decelerate sharply to a slower than GDP growth period after reaching its current heights, we’re living in a period when the level of demand from marketers continues to spur revenue growth, and not only in radio, but across all, or most, of the ad-supported media, at a rate considerably faster than GDP. And it’s a very important point, because I think many investors continue to misunderstand the resilient strength of the advertising marketplace for several years yet to come.

TWST: Lee, would you comment?

Mr. Westerfield: This may define the difference between trading the stocks for a six-month stretch of time or a shorter time span versus investing over a longer duration. One of the things that is important to pull out of the elements that Victor alluded to there is the perception rather than the reality of advertising and marketing expenditures from those companies. And we could expand this to telecommunications. Some of the deregulation that’s occurred in telecommunications compels investment in advertising and marketing expenditures to build wireless demand, to build demand for handset units, PDAs and so forth.

TWST: Lee, since advertising is so important in your analysis of these stocks, which are the companies that are going to benefit — and of course the reverse?

Mr. Westerfield: I’m looking for companies that are located in markets where brand trend-setting occurs. So I begin with three points on the compass — New York, Chicago and Los Angeles — and I’ll point to Tribune (NYSE:TRB) first with regard to their strength in those three particular cities with multiple media. You can’t possibly mention Tribune without mentioning Emmis (Nasdaq:EMMS) for similar reasons, although their concentration in those markets is really radio.

TWST: Lee, which companies rate your top recommendations?

Mr. Westerfield: Right now Clear Channel is my top stock pick. In Tribune I would then bring up the next theme on my roster as trend setting markets in Chicago, Los Angeles and New York really occupy the minds of national marketers. Tribune stands as a gatekeeper with multiple media assets, particularly its WB affiliates and its newspaper/dot-com assets in those markets. That stock, misperceived, a little like Scripps (NYSE:SSP), as a newspaper-oriented company, I really think has as its strategy to have multiple media assets unveiled in 2001. Investors will come to see that there is a true complementary nature to the asset mix that is broader than pure newspaper inside Tribune. That stock at $37 has been rallying lately going into the fall broadcasting season with eyes turning toward the WB network, and I expect that that stock should trade up into the mid-$50s over the course of the next 12 months.

Tickers included in this excerpt: TRB

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Media: Radio & Television Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 10/09/00. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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