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TWST: When we spoke last in July 1999, you told us that events such as the Olympics and the presidential election feed expectations and tighten up ad time. How is Olympics-related ad spending shaping up, and is North American viewership affected by the time difference when the Olympics are held in Australia?

Ms. Fine: The time difference could have a negative effect, although I don’t really know. I think it will be somewhat of a negative but not a huge one. People have a fascination with seeing the event even if they know the outcome; given the time difference, the results won’t make the paper but will make it to Websites and TV. I think the ad sales have been going well. At both the network and station level, inventory is pretty well spoken for. The issue is at the other networks and other stations, advertisers typically don’t really want to advertise against the Olympics. There’s always a percentage of people who won’t watch it and they want to get those people, but they won’t be aggressive about it. What will be interesting to note is that the Olympics are later this year than they’ve ever been, and they’re going to come right in the heart of the political elections. That faucet is just getting turned on in terms of that campaign spending.

TWST: Which gets higher every election, doesn’t it?

Ms. Fine: No, it actually doesn’t.

TWST: Really?

Ms. Fine: It really depends on how tight the races are nationally and state by state and, further, how many propositions or issues are being surfaced. The current presidential race is proving to be tighter than anticipated, which should lead to a fair amount of spending. Remember, though, the agencies tend not to benefit from political spending.

TWST: Why is that?

Ms. Fine: Because specialized firms tend to handle political campaigns. It tends to be more political consultants, and if you’ve ever seen an ad for a candidate, it doesn’t require a lot of creativity. They probably benefit a little bit on the public relations side, but for the most part, this is a non-event for them. So people might see station advertising accelerate in the late third quarter, early fourth quarter because of the political ad campaigns; the agencies won’t benefit. The good news is they won’t suffer tough comparisons next year. On the Olympics, essentially, the way I’ve always looked at it is about a quarter of what will be spent on the Olympics will be truly incremental. The rest of it will be time-shifting of campaigns toward the Olympics. And no one agency will dominate them. Omnicom Group (NYSE:OMC) tends to dominate big events like the Super Bowl and Olympics in terms of who their clients are, but by dominate, I would suggest garnering less than 20% of the event. Even then, that wouldn’t represent difficult comparisons for them. In fact, in all of the years that I have covered Omnicom Group, they have never used an event as an explanation for a good quarter or a tough comparison; they are too large and diversified for it to have an effect.