TECHNOLOGY | HEALTH | CONSUMER | INDUSTRIAL | FINANCIAL | NATURAL | INVESTING
 

Latest Issues
Advanced Search
Subscribe
TWST Conferences
Subscribe Online
TWST Products
Technology
Healthcare
Consumer
Industry & Services
Financial Services
Natural Resources
Investing Strategies
Who is TWST?
Contact TWST
Contact TWST Europe
Sample Issue
Home

Click the button below to talk to a live representative from The Wall Street Transcript

 

The Wall Street Transcript publishes:

Internet Security & Identity Authentication Issue
Four analysts and top management from nine sector firms examine the Security/Internet Security & Identity Authentication sector in this 51 - page Issue from The Wall Street Transcript.
Investing Strategies Report
Weekly series of interviews with TWST Editors and top money managers

Let the best minds of Wall Street pick your stock

How has Special Stock Report been able to consistently outperform the major indices? Find out how!
 

 

Analyst comments on A.G. Edwards Full article published: 08/25/2000     DEAN P. EBERLING is a Senior Vice President at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods


For Subscribers

Get the complete article now!

TWST: Dean, you began the discussion — anything you’d add?

Mr. Eberling: Just that from an industry perspective, whether pooling goes away or not won’t change the structural forces at work in both industries. So from that vantage point, we don’t think it matters all that much. Whether or not the pooling of interest going away will clip the level of M&A activity, domestically or globally, is another debate. However, there is interesting academic work that defines the four major waves of M&A activity over the course of the last 100 years, and at no time does that M&A wave change as a result of accounting changes. It does tend to change radically on valuations, and my guess is that as long as the equity markets remain healthy, M&A activity will remain robust. Moreover, given the structural changes taking place in Europe, I don’t think corporate executives are going to care too much about pooling versus purchase, but they will care a lot about the strategic chess match unfolding in their particular industry. And until the stock market retreats enough to radically impair valuations, we believe we’re going to see continued strength in M&A activity.

TWST: Dean, what is A.G. Edwards (NYSE:AGE) doing to rate your recommendation, then?

Mr. Eberling: The stock, because of strategic issues, has languished relative to the group and at one point last year was down better than 40% year on year. This year it’s actually moved higher because of speculation about takeover. We believe the second half of the year could be pretty good, number one. Number two, as investors search the sea for properties that could provide similar — and we can debate similar –- but broad distribution, A.G. Edwards has got to be on the list and the company is definitely moving to change. Now, whether they succeed or not may not matter as long as investors see change, which could be enough to move the stock, and that’s what it boils down to. We believe the second half of the year could be pretty good and the company is feeling the pressure strategically and will make change. Finally, as other stocks leave the group, like PaineWebber, investors will rebalance and this is a name that you can’t go too wrong in. It may not be Goldman Sachs in its cachet, but statistically it’s well run and is swimming in a sea of scarcity.

TWST: The first six months of this year in the market have been a pretty wild ride. What do you expect for the next six months, and were there any lessons you learned that investors might benefit from?

Mr. Eberling: Well, in general, our view of the next 12 months, which I’m assuming is our time frame, is that the backdrop will continue to be relatively good. Retail investors, while they may move in and out of the market as they did in the first half, will generally provide solid overall support. We believe that retail investors will be the fuel for the capital-raising cycle here in the United States and globally. The M&A wave will continue as long as we have high valuations and regardless of whether or not the accounting profession decides to kill pooling. But we also think volatility will be ever-present and increasingly so as we move toward decimalization. Over the next 12 months, global platforms, big platforms that are well run, defined as tight-risk management, tight-cost management, will generally produce a high overall quality of earnings and deserve to trade at premium valuations. And the quality of earnings ultimately will drive the values higher.

Tickers included in this excerpt: AGE

For US quote, 
enter ticker here:
For a European quote, 
enter ticker here:
Have TWST notes emailed to you free:
Version: Email address:


For Subscribers

Get the complete article now!

Email this page


This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Brokers & Asset Managers Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 08/21/00. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

SECTOR LINKS

  • Banks/Brokers
  • Insurance
  • Real Estate/REITs


     

  • HOME PRODUCTS SUBSCRIBE ABOUT ARCHIVE HOTLINE CONTACT EUROPE