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Internet Security & Identity Authentication Issue
Four analysts and top management from nine sector firms examine the Security/Internet Security & Identity Authentication sector in this 51 - page Issue from The Wall Street Transcript.
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Analyst considers DoubleClick a good buy Full article published: 09/25/2000     CHRISTOPHER R. HANSEN is a Senior Equity Research Analyst at Banc of America Securities LLC


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TWST: Going forward, say, looking out over the next few years, will the offline agencies that have not yet gotten an Internet strategy have to develop one in-house or buy an online company?

Mr. Hansen: Well, I would say that is more that they “are” developing. The majority of the savvy agency holding companies and stand-alone, offline marketing services companies have realized that the Internet, and other emerging forms of digital communication such as wireless and eventually interactive television, are having a big impact on the way that advertising and marketing services are bought. They need to be proactive in partnering, initially; in acquiring, when valuations inevitably converge; in making strategic investments in those companies while the multiples and valuations don’t make sense; and, most importantly, in trying to internally build out their own in-house capabilities.

TWST: What are you suggesting that investors do with DoubleClick (Nasdaq:DCLK) these days?

Mr. Hansen: I would say for long-term holders, DoubleClick is a good buy at current levels. The company is going to be a clear winner in this space. The company has very good, if not the best, technology that’s out there. It has a great roster of clients and it has a very good management team. Additionally, the company is well on its way toward achieving profitability. We’re estimating they’re going to reach breakeven this quarter and turn profitable next quarter. Given the 50% plus growth we’re forecasting for the online advertising market, we think DoubleClick’s shares are attractive here at 6 times 2001 revenues and 95 times 2001 EPS. I would say in the near term, however, privacy issues are something that we’re watching closely. While DoubleClick would tell you that these issues have been resolved following their recent agreement with the FTC, we would disagree. Until there is clear legislation from Congress that puts the final stamp of approval on Internet privacy standards, the issue remains an area of concern for DoubleClick. Additionally, another wrinkle has been added in that Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) is going to be beta testing a cookie enhancement feature to its Web browser that basically will make consumers aware of the fact that third parties, like DoubleClick, are cookieing them, which might cause them to turn-off DoubleClick’s cookies, and that’s not good for DoubleClick’s business. If this feature is implemented as-is into future versions of Microsoft’s Web browser, DoubleClick could be forced to re-work its central ad serving technology, a move that would likely be costly, and which could put earnings estimates at risk. Thus in the near term, we remain more cautious on the stock. We wouldn’t expect a lot out of it for the balance of the year, but as a long-term play, we think at 35, it’s a good entry point if you can afford to be patient.

TWST: One last question. Is there one overriding issue that you think investors are going to have for the companies that are attending your conference?

Mr. Hansen: I think the question on everybody’s minds right now, which I don’t think anybody has the answer to is, again, where’s the economy going? That’s going to directly affect how much investment goes into or out of the advertising industry and the stocks. On the offline side, that’s the overriding issue. I would say on the online side, it’s privacy, and will things pick back up in Q4? How many of these online guys are going out of business?

Tickers included in this excerpt: DCLK

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 09/21/00. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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