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Analyst names Duke a core holding Full article published: 06/15/2000     JAMES L. "JAY" DOBSON is Vice President and Equity Research Analyst at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.


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TWST: In the new world of deregulation, convergence and competition, utilities have been adopting vastly different strategies. Jay, would you sketch the electric power industry of today? I'm sure it's changed very much in your years of analysis.

Mr. Dobson: : You're absolutely right. I would say that the sketch right now would most easily be breaking the industry down into a generation sector and a distribution sector. We could go many iterations beyond that, with the hope of generating superior earnings growth and shareholder value, but in the essence of simplicity, we've taken to dividing the group into generators and distributors. The best part is looking at the current industry, which is deregulating, you see a lot of opportunities for generation additions. That's not necessarily just a result of the deregulating market, but actually as a result of the fact that we are short generating capacity here in the United States. So you've got a lot of opportunity to add new generating capacity, and hence, to generate earnings growth for the companies pursuing a generation strategy. The distributors are a bit more constrained on their earnings growth in the near to intermediate term.

TWST: Explain then, as you will at the DLJ Conference, how investors can better understand the electric power industry. Jay, these are no longer very dependable investments for widows and orphans, but you say, if you pick your stocks correctly, there is money to be made.

Mr. Dobson:Again, the opportunity, the biggest opportunity in our opinion for investors right now is the shortage of supply in the United States. This summer, looking out particularly to the months of July and August when summer heat demands electricity, we see the prospect of black-outs and brown-outs around the United States. That is the clearest factual indication in our mind that we are short generating capacity. Companies like Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), Calpine (NYSE:CPN), PECO Energy (NYSE:PE), and Constellation Energy (NYSE:CEG) (all of whom will be presenting at our conference), who are adding generating capacity in the near to intermediate term, are probably creating an opportunity for themselves to print money — I say that jokingly — but certainly giving themselves the opportunity to earn very attractive returns in the near to intermediate term, let's call that two years.

TWST: Are there any stocks that you haven't mentioned that you'd highlight?

Mr. Dobson: One other name I would mention that I continue to think is a core holding is Duke Energy, which is probably the most diversified and successful energy company in the previously known electric utility space. That is a buy-rated stock as well, but clearly PECO Energy and Constellation would be our favorite investment ideas in the current world. Certainly all three of them will be presenting at our Electric Power Conference June 12 through 14.


Tickers included in this excerpt: DUK

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 06/14/00. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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