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Top-ranked CSFB Retail Analyst backs Safeway as two-way bet Full article published: 04/21/2000     DAVID SHRIVER is a Pan-European Retail Analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston in London.


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TWST: Have you other stocks on your buy list that you'd like to talk about?

Mr. Shriver: There are two other stocks which I think look very interesting at the moment, neither of which one would see as big multinational players themselves, but both are companies where there is value being created because of the changes in market structure which we are seeing. The first one of these is Safeway in the UK ... The change in Safeway's fortunes dates from November of last year, when the new chief executive Carlos Perez took over the top job at the company. he had previously been co-head of the international business at Wal-Mart. He came on board determined to turn Safeway's top-line fortunes around - historically Safeway had found itself squeezed; it's not big enough to compete on everyday low price with Asda and Tesco, but when it tried to be aggressive on promotions competitors reacted by copying their promotional prices nationally, and they ended up really with a sort of zero sum again. What Perez has put into place is a promotional strategy which is based on choosing a small selection of items to be promoted aggressively in each store locally, a pool of maybe 500, and these items change every week. That makes it very difficult for Asda or Tesco to cut prices on 500 lines, and they are not geared up to meeting local promotions, because by the time they get their own act together the Safeway store has moved on and they've chosen another 25 lines. This is having a dramatic effect on the top line. Q4, like for likes are up 4% - that's including 4% deflation; so volume growth is up 8%, the industry's growing 1-2%. This means we can perhaps begin to look forward to profit upgrades going forward into the future. So by harnessing the momentum of the top line, Safeway is beginning to make significant improvements to the bottom line. We think that Safeway should at least enjoy a sector average rating. If it traded on a sector average rating then its share price would be GBP 2.50 rather than GBP 1.86 today. If for any reason turnaround does not proceed in the way that we expect, then of course the value of the property and the value of the market share which Safeway has, and the fact that there are other retailers who would be very keen to actually buy Safeway, consolidate Safeway, give a very important floor to any potential down side. We think Safeway is basically a good two-way bet; you win whatever happens.

TWST: You spoke about the consolidation of Safeway; is there any indication of external interest? What presence does Carrefour have in the UK market?

Mr. Shriver: None at the moment. We think the most likely acquirer would be Asda.


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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript Europe on 04/17/00 For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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