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PaineWebber Analyst likes AFLAC. Full article published: 03/02/2000     ROBERT A. LEE is a First Vice President in the financial services group of PaineWebber Equity Research.


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TWST: Robert, would you add anything that impacted your outlook for 2000?

Ms. Lee: I would agree with Colin that demutualization will be one of the big issues impacting life stocks over first part of the year. Demutualization. would presume that the rating agencies would look favorably on demutualization since it should provide better access to capital, whether it's equity or debt. So it increases financial flexibility in an increasingly competitive business. Hopefully, some of the pressures of being public will cause them to run their businesses more efficiently, because all of a sudden you have to be responsive to the likes of us (analysts) and investors and others. So hopefully there is pressure to start improving returns. In that context, I don't see why they (the rating agencies) wouldn't view most demutualizations as a positive if they increase management and capital flexibility and improve operating efficiency. The only other point I would add relates to mutual holding companies. There is clearly a control issue with that structure. While it's much cheaper and quicker, as Michelle pointed out, to be a mutual holding company and raise capital that way, versus a full mutualization, the downside is mutual holding companies may serve to entrench management, because public investors only own a minority stake.

Number one is management -- I think clearly having the confidence in a management's team ability to execute their game plan and basically many life companies have the same game plan, so it comes down to, I think, how well the company executes it. Two is distribution. This really ties into execution. It really comes down to which companies do a great job of penetrating their distribution, holding onto it, really pushing product through it. So I think it's the companies that have really executed extremely well and have great distribution platforms. Number three would be which companies consistently generate real shareholder value. Which are the companies that do a great job of not just growing their earnings consistently, but maintaining and increasing profitability, controlling expenses, finding ways in a very competitive market to keep their own returns high and find new opportunities? All these factors are interrelated -- it's hard to separate them -- but I'd say those would be the three things ... And the last one I'm going to talk about is AFLAC (NYSE:AFL). I think one of the things holding the stock back is fear of deregulation in the Japanese market next year. That is creating some uncertainty. But my own view is, in a market where people clearly want to focus on market leaders, this is a company that has been able to create real shareholder value over an extended period of time, and it should be able to continue to do so. AFLAC, I think, should be able to get through deregulation in Japan with flying colors. We think the company can sustain 15% plus earnings growth, and much higher than industry average shareholder returns, return on equity. When investors do start to turn back to this sector, this is one of the companies that will benefit.


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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Life Insurance featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 02/28/00. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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