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Analyst likes Nationwide. Full article published: 03/02/2000     MICHELLE GIORDANO is a Vice President and Senior Life Insurance Analyst with J.P. Morgan Securities, Inc.


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TWST: Michelle, will you review the events and developments that shaped the performance of the companies and, of course, moved the stock prices in 1999?

Ms. Giordano: Actually in 1999 it looks like the J.P. Morgan Life Insurance Index will probably generate about a 14% increase in operating earnings. We still have a couple of companies that need to report earnings. Basically what we saw is that the annuity companies -- Hartford Life (NYSE:HLI), Nationwide (NYSE:NFS), AXA Financial (NYSE:AXF) -- reported some of the strongest earnings growth, and the slowest earnings growth came from the traditional life insurance companies, or the companies that reported some little bombs or disasters, companies that had exposure either to the UK market, medical reinsurance, or disability.

My three factors that I'm looking at are three D's also, but a little different. One is distribution, the second is discipline and third is determination. In terms of distribution, I like companies that have breadth of distribution and have a variety of channels to sell their product in, because in my view, that's key to growth in this market. Second, in terms of discipline, what I'm looking at is underwriting discipline, making sure that management is not taking on too much risk using capital appropriately. The third issue, in terms of determination, is determination to generate an improving ROE and EPS growth. In terms of the three stocks I look at, only one of them will be new, the other two have already been mentioned. I have two growth stocks and a small cap name... My second pick is Nationwide, another growth story. We have a price target of $55 (over 100% upside) and a 2000 EPS estimate of $3.44. Nationwide is a company that is extremely focused on diversified distribution, product innovation, and changing customer needs. NFS is well-positioned in both the individual and group annuity markets, as well as the variable life insurance markets. In addition, the company is also well-positioned in the fixed and variable annuity markets.


Tickers included in this excerpt: NFS

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Life Insurance featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 02/28/00. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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