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Analyst likes Columbia Full article published: 02/24/2000     DAVID N. FLEISCHER is a Managing Director with Goldman, Sachs & Company.


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TWST: David, any events or developments that shaped the performance of the companies or that moved their stocks that you'd point to?

Mr. Fleischer: I believe that investors have tried to be simplistic, and I think too simplistic, in choosing industry factors that drive valuation. It's easy but shortsighted to talk about a factor or several factors that will drive the group, and clearly energy prices and weather are a couple of factors that do tend in the short run to drive the group as a whole, even though they shouldn't. My answer is that increasingly these companies, which I like to call diversified natural gas companies, are emerging with their own mix of businesses and their own internal factors that are driving them more, just as your question at the beginning asked who is the next Enron (NYSE:ENE) and Williams (NYSE:WMB). Well, in difficult environments in past years we've seen some good performance in those names and not too many others, so that's the right question to be asking. As we see this entire industry opening up to competition, and likely increasingly severe competition as gas and electricity inevitably converge, and as companies seek their proper or best position in the future marketplace, some will be successful, some will not be very successful at all in an environment that likely will be very rapidly changing.

TWST: David, what other stocks in this group would you highlight for investors?

Mr. Fleischer: I would mention several other names I have recommended ratings on that I think have appeal. One of them would be Columbia (NYSE:CGP), which we had talked about earlier as having some mating ritual dances going on with others right now, and where many expect there will be some sort of transaction near term. And they've indicated they have a handful of bidders that are willing to pay more than the mid-$70s price. With that stock trading at $63 1/4 currently, there's some good upside potential.


Tickers included in this excerpt: CGP

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Natural Gas Transmission & Distribution Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 02/21/00. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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