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Analyst likes Tribune. Full article published: 02/11/2000     WILLIAM B. DREWRY is a Vice President and Equity Analyst at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.


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TWST: First of all, which are the companies you include in your DLJ newspaper stock universe, and in general how did newspaper stocks perform for investors in 1999?

Mr. Drewry: Our universe is pretty comprehensive. It includes what we think are the top 14 companies in the industry, including all the big ones - Gannett (NYSE:GCI), Knight-Ridder (NYSE:KRI), New York Times (NYSE:NYT), Times Mirror (NYSE:TMC), Tribune (NYSE:TRB) - and a large selection of the small to mid-cap names as well such as Dow Jones (NYSE:DJ), Washington Post (NYSE:WPO), Scripps (NYSE:SSP), Belo (NYSE:BLC), Central (NYSE:ECP), McClatchy (NYSE:MNI), Hollinger International (NYSE:HLR), Media General (Amex:MEGa) and Journal Register (JRC). So it's a comprehensive list. The stocks have had mixed performance. The big cap stocks generally outperformed for the third time out of the last four years in 1999. The mid- to small cap stocks, however, generally underperformed for the year. The investor focus was primarily on the big cap names, I believe, due to the fundamentals cycling back up and the stocks being relatively cheap across-the-board. In 2000 we're looking for broader participation as far as potential outperformance as the year goes on.

TWST: Please continue with your other recommendations.

Mr. Drewry: I think the Tribune (NYSE:TRB) is attractive as well. The stock has really pulled back here recently off its highs. And it's really the only major TV growth story out there in the market right now with their leverage to the WB network, which is showing real ratings growth, translating into phenomenal revenue growth of around the mid-teens. They are far outstripping the rest of the TV industry as far as growth. It's just phenomenal. Meanwhile, their newspaper operations are high margin. The growth rates there have lagged over the last year. The rest of industry seemed to be picking up some steam here at the beginning of the year, so I think that like Gannett, Tribune should be a pretty well balanced growth story here in 2000. And given their mix of assets and their diversity, we think it is really the one stock in our group right now that should be valued more as a diversified media stock, like Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), Viacom (NYSE:VIA) or News Corp. (NYSE:NWS). And I think that if you're looking to play those diversified media names, Tribune is actually a great way to do that at a cheaper price, with their mix of print, TV, entertainment and Internet assets, as well as a still very sizable Internet investment portfolio.


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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 02/07/00. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2000, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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