Large Caps' Equity Holds Value As Gold Prices And Production Costs Rise
TWST: We spoke about a year ago, and your commodity team was looking for gold to go to $1,450 or better, and it has done that. Where do we go from here?
Mr. Beristain: The latest forecast has come off a little bit. The bank's commodity team out of London a few months ago was calling for gold to be as high as $2,000 an ounce on average for 2012. We since pared back our estimates about three months ago to $1,900, but still roughly $150 higher than where we are today and still supportive for gold equities.
I think from this point forward, given that gold tested already the $1,800 mark a few months back, it's not so much the absolute number that gold gets to from this point forward, but if investors start to form a belief that gold will at least sustain in the $1,700 to $1,900 range in the next few years - that really does change materially the outlook for these equities. I think the thought process for a lot of investors prior to the summer spike was that gold was somehow going to reach a "peak" level and then collapse. But since the collapse happened, gold has clawed its way back to the high $1,700s, and I think that's giving people some faith that perhaps we're not going to the capitulation that has been feared.
TWST: Given this background and the global economic uncertainties, why shouldn't gold come down?