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Analyst Interview Excerpt
Overriding Themes in Processors' Quarterly Results - Ian Horowitz - Rafferty Capital Markets, LLC


Full article published: 06/14/2010


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TWST: I'd like to start with a quick snapshot of your coverage universe.
Mr. Horowitz: Right now I am covering the processing side, so that would be ADM, The Andersons, Bunge, Corn Products, Green Plains Renewable Energy and Metabolix. And we are going to be launching a new name, so we are focusing on the processing side for right now.

TWST: What's your overall outlook for the processors in general?
Mr. Horowitz: I am fairly positive on the entire processing side, including the protein processing side. I think demand should remain relatively strong. I don't think we are in the massive China/India bull-market rush that we were in before, but demographics are continuing to progress, so I don't think that that should change. And then on the input side, the cost of goods side, we are in a fairly muted commodity environment. The supplies of crops look good, which should keep prices relatively muted. I think from a macro, longer-term standpoint, I'm still a believer in the long-term secular trend for more calories consumed, more food into the system. However, as we are seeing, I think with every stock in every sector, there are always those moments for short-term volatility. The problem with these stocks or these companies is you can't model them. There is no real way to forecast profitability and earnings over short periods of time. You've got commodities swinging one way and prices that aren't very transparent on the other side, and then on top of that, all of these companies put on financial hedges to mitigate their risk. So it's always kind of difficult to figure out on a quarter-to-quarter basis what these companies are going to do or how they are going to perform. I just try to take a longer-term view.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: ADM, ANDE, BG, CPO, GPRE, MBLX, NWL, TATE, TGT

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.