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Analyst Interview Excerpt
Near-Term Pricing & Rig Count Forecasts - Philip H. Weiss - Argus Research Company


Full article published: 05/31/2010


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TWST: How much of a game-changer is the Gulf oil rig explosion?
Mr. Weiss: That's a very good question; I've been thinking about it a lot. Part of me says it's a little bit early to tell because we don't know what's caused the spill yet, but I do think at a minimum there is going to be an examination of practices down there, and we are going to end up with probably additional costs and more regulation on activity. Procedures could also become more standardized as well. I just don't think that it's going to put an end to deepwater drilling because when I look at our energy policy, and our reliance on foreign oil and the desire to reduce that, combined with the employment situation in the country and how shutting down activity could take people out of work, I find it hard to think that they just make it go away.

TWST: But the spill could raise costs and prolong licensing?
Mr. Weiss: Yes, certainly their costs could move higher if there is more regulation, increased inspections of the rig or the associated process, a more rigorous drilling plan approval process, a requirement to have more equipment on hand to be ready in case something like this ever happens again. There was this story in The Wall Street Journal talking about the use of an acoustic switch, which is mandatory in Norway and Brazil, as another means of activating the blowout preventer. And whether it's that or something else - a more frequent inspection to the rigs or things like that - I think they've got to do something because they have to try to increase the comfort level associated with the process as well as the safety of the operations.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: APA, BP, CHK, COP, CVX, DVN, LUKOY, ME, OXY, WTI, XOM, XTO

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.