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Analyst Interview Excerpt
Overview of Midwestern Regional Bank Metrics - Craig Siegenthaler - Credit Suisse


Full article published: 04/05/2010


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TWST: As you look at the space, are we getting close to the end of the financial crisis? Or are we still in the midst of working things out?
Mr. Siegenthaler: In terms of the credit cycle - that's actually losses on loans - you are about or in the middle innings here, and it's different for the larger regional banks in the Midwest. If you look at Comerica, Comerica has a big footprint in Texas and California. If you look at Fifth Third, big footprint in Florida. Some of the areas actually have, or some of the banks have, an earlier-cycle geography footprint, even though they are based out in the Midwest, or most of the loans are based out in the Midwest. So some of the larger ones may be coming through a little earlier. And also if you had a big construction portfolio, we are also well past the peak there. So it depends on your loan mix, it depends on your geography. But on average, I think you are at the middle part of the cycle.

TWST: Have the big issues all dropped now? Or are we likely to get some more nasty surprises as we go along?
Mr. Siegenthaler: In the third quarter, there is going to be new disclosure on C&I, kind of shared national credit losses. I don't think you'll see any real big surprises there. C&I credit quality is trending much better than we thought there. One sure to drop could be of course commercial real estate. But you know, even though commercial real estate is very bad in this cycle versus prior cycles, it's tracking much better than most of us thought in terms of loan losses. And one reason is restructuring those loans has helped to avoid some of the loss, and it's postponed. So CRE, in our view, the hump in terms of the peak is much lower than we thought it was going to be. But it's still likely going to have a high stream of losses that travel out into 2011 and 2012.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: BC, C, CMA, COF, FHN, FITB, JPM, KEY, RY, TCB

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.