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Analyst Interview Excerpt
Sustainable, Not Hockey-Stick Demand in Health Care IT - Leo Carpio - Caris & Company


Full article published: 03/11/2010


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TWST: How would you say the ARRA will affect the health care IT industry? Has your perception changed since the last time we spoke?
Mr. Carpio: The shorter answer is my perception has changed, yes. In terms of the effect, clearly it's not going to be the hockey-stick demand increase that everyone was thinking about. It's going to be a moderate rising tide, but this tide is going to be sustainable. Let me explain it and let me provide some more color on that. Last year everyone was exuberant over ARRA and thought that ARRA was going to provide a huge surge of demand starting in 2010, that doctors and hospitals would be rushing to buy systems. And what we have seen so far is more of a fragmented response in that the mid-size and large group physician practices, and mid-size and large hospitals, and academic hospitals have moved forward and are buying systems. But on the lower end of this space, the small group - individual physicians and small hospitals - are hesitating. And what is driving that is a couple of forces. One is the economy; simply the finances are tough for doctors and hospitals at this point. And then secondly, the rules itself. The unexpected surprise was back in December. The proposed meaningful use contained a loophole, and the loophole was this: In the first year of the program, doctors and hospitals only need to submit 90 days' worth of data to earn the first year's worth of financial incentives. Previously, everyone thought the doctors and hospitals had to be running up and submitting data for a full year. So what in effect the rule has said is doctors and hospitals can delay implementation in the first year. The economy and other items has reinforced and caused a slowdown in the low end of the market. It's slower than people were expecting, and that's what you have seen in this quarter in a lot of the stocks. They have come out with earnings and bookings numbers that were modest - in line with expectations, but people were expecting better and stronger numbers. And now there's the kind of quiet resignation that we will have to wait a couple of quarters to get that number.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: CPSI, ECLP, MDRX, OMCL, QSII

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.