Mr. Manarin: I obviously can't tell you what's going to happen over the next month or two, for it is totally psychological. Looking at the bigger forces that cause activity, the consequences of fiscal and monetary policy tell me that the probability by year-end is the market will be up 20% to 30% from today's levels. Monetary policy is still a green light in my opinion. There is tons of money out there and the Fed is acknowledging that they will be loose for awhile yet. So that's a green light. Fiscal policy, the stimulus package passed last year has more than half to two-thirds of the money still not spent and that will be tossed around this year. So you stir 500 billion into the economy and you are obviously going to have activity. Two green lights on fiscal and monetary policy for the next year or two, I want to be in the stock market, for it will benefit from all that activity.
TWST: So you are not one of those experts that see a double-dip recession?
Mr. Manarin: No, I don't see it being a double-dip. Now the Fed could change their minds tomorrow then I will change my view as well, but right now I see green lights, so no double-dip.
For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.