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Analyst Interview Excerpt
Growth Opportunities in Small-Cap Chinese Companies - Ping Luo - Global Hunter Securities, LLC


Full article published: 12/08/2009


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TWST: You've talked about the difference between China's export and domestic economies. How should investors looking at equities in the Chinese market assess the critical distinction at this point?
Ms. Luo: As you know, the Chinese economy has three pillars - one is fixed-asset investment, one is domestic consumption and one is export. For the past several years, these three pillars, each accounted for about one-third of the GDP growth. However, since the second half of 2008, the export business has been declining due to the slowdown of global demand. It is estimated that China's export growth in 2009 was -19.5%. For the companies which have significant export exposure, their businesses have been affected. Their revenue growth slowed down since last year and will likely remain weak until next year, though we just started to see some recovery. Since there is not much the government can do about global demand, yet it still needs to sustain growth in GDP, it came up with a $586 billion stimulus program to increase its fixed-asset investment, which is mainly infrastructure buildout, and to stimulate domestic consumption. These policies have been quite effective so far this year. So when we talked about investment ideas, we told investors earlier this year in February and March that we should put more focus on those companies targeting domestic markets. But I want to point out that we have seen a number of previously export-oriented companies begin to switch their marketing efforts to domestic market starting earlier this year. By now these efforts have begun to bear fruit because of strong domestic demand. For those who cannot make the transition, their growth will likely remain relatively weak for a while. For the short term, we believe the government has turned to domestic consumption to buy time for global demand to recover. For the long term, we think the Chinese government intends to reduce the economy's reliance on exports.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: CAAS, CHL, CHLN, CHU, CRTP, CVVT, DEER, SIHI, WATG, WH, YONG

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.