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Analyst Interview Excerpt
Baked-In Recovery In Hotel Stocks - Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank


Full article published: 11/23/2009


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TWST: What's your general outlook for hotel companies right now?
Mr. Woronka: As is usually the case, stocks attempt to anticipate changes, in this case recovery. So I think you have seen that priced into the stocks. This group has been what I call a "high-beta group" in the last several months and has outperformed the market. That said, where we are now on valuations, it certainly appears as though there is a fairly healthy dose of recovery baked into the stocks. I am a believer in recovery. I do think the industry will recover; historically that's been the case. There are folks who wonder whether we are going to recover or if this is more of a reset - in other words, we have a new base, if you will. That's kind of hard to say, but I certainly do believe that there is a greater risk to these very high expectations that appear to be baked into the stocks for 2011 and beyond. I think there is obviously a greater risk that the recovery is not as strong as that. In my own opinion, I think we are in for more of a modest recovery. I think the magnitude of room rate losses that we have seen - that to me points to more of a reset instead of a sharp recovery.

TWST: So in your opinion, the stocks are already priced to reflect a future recovery that may or may not happen?
Mr. Woronka: Yes, definitely.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: CHH, GET, HMIN, MTN, WYN

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.