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Analyst Interview Excerpt
HEALTH CARE PROGNOSIS: CHANGES AHEAD – DAVID BACHMAN – LONGROW RESEARCH


Full article published: 09/21/2009


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TWST: Let's start with your overall outlook for the health care facilities industry. What is it and why?
Mr. Bachman: I think we are going to continue to see - and this is regardless of what happens with health care reform and so forth - the secular trend toward health care being provided in what's the lowest-cost, highest-quality and most convenient setting that makes clinical sense. I think facility operators who embrace this move toward more outpatient-based care versus inpatient care, who have the financial flexibility to invest in newer forms of health care delivery, will continue to be winners in this environment. However, in the near term I think we are going to continue to see many of the operators in the industry struggle with their very high fixed cost-based, asset-intensive business model. I think that you have seen that to a certain degree with the traditional inpatient hospital - as we see patients shift more to the outpatient setting or managing their care through new medical technology and drug delivery, and those sorts of things, they are very vulnerable to volumes falling off and having a very high fixed cost base, which is hurting them. There are a number of operators out there that I think are making the shift toward the outpatient type of setting versus inpatient, and they are going to benefit from that over the long term. Many facilities, either because they don't have access to capital, their balance sheet doesn't allow it, I think are struggling in the near term. When I look at my longer-term outlook for health care facilities, at the end of the day, a facility is just a means of delivering health care. I think about how the delivery of music has evolved through technology over the past 10 years or so - a shift away from music that took place on big pieces of equipment that were stationary toward iPods and music that you take with you, and you get it wherever - and I think we will see an analogous shift in health care. So over time, I think we will see less and less of the sorts of health care procedures or health care delivery that makes sense in that inpatient type of setting, and we'll move more toward that more efficient, lower-cost type of care.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: AMSG, PSYS, USPH

 

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