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Analyst Interview Excerpt
OUTLOOK FOR EDUCATION & E-LEARNING – ROBERT L. CRAIG & JERRY R. HERMAN – STIFEL, NICOLAUS & COMPANY, INC.


Full article published: 09/07/2009


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TWST: Let's start with the economic issue first. Certainly these guys have benefited as the economy has slowed. How long does it take for a reversal to happen? Isn't it a while?
Mr. Herman: That will take quite some time and it depends on a variety of factors. Clearly the challenging call is just how quickly the economy recovers, the trajectory of recovery. We have lost 6.5 million jobs since the start of the recession in early 2008. The unemployment levels for the less educated are obviously much higher. In fact you are twice as likely to be unemployed if you don't have a bachelor's degree than if you do have one. The rate is about 9.6% vs. 4.7%. When you look at the business model, certain programs are more or less cyclical, and those companies that have longer student durations would tend to have less sensitivity to the cycle. In other words, the students that enter the educational pipeline seeking a bachelor's degree or doctoral degree would have a longer duration and therefore revenue and earnings annuity stream vs. those with a very short duration programs. The later is more economically sensitive than the former.

TWST: So it really depends upon where you are situated to a degree?
Mr. Herman: Correct.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: APOL, CPLA, DV, STRA

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.