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2009-12-21: Luxury Goods And Entertainment Report
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Analyst Interview Excerpt
OUTLOOK FOR LODGING – SMEDES ROSE – KEEFE, BRUYETTE & WOODS, INC.


Full article published: 07/27/2009


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TWST: Tell us what's going on out there in the lodging industry. How bad is the slump?
Mr. Rose: It's very bad. It is pretty much unprecedented, what we're seeing in the industry right now. As you know, the key metric that we look at is RevPAR, or revenue per available room. We think in 2009, RevPAR will decline by 18% to 20% and will likely fall modestly in 2010. I would compare that to the fallout after 9/11, when RevPAR declined 7% in 2001 and about 3% in 2002 before flatting out in 2003. So this is really much worse than what we've seen in recent times.

TWST: Is there anything positive going on in lodging?
Mr. Rose: We did see a property sale by Starwood (HOT) recently, selling the W Hotel in San Francisco at an approximate 5 cap rate, or capitalization rate. That looks like pretty good pricing to us. It does show that there are some buyers who remain well-financed and there are some properties that are desirable. But I would say the good news is slim and few and far between.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: HOT, HST, Mar, NST, SHO

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.