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Analyst Interview Excerpt
OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN BANKS – AARON JAMES DEER – SANDLER O'NEIL + PARTNERS, LP


Full article published: 07/13/2009


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TWST: Aaron, we're almost a year into this financial morass. Where do the banks in the West stand at this point in terms of both coping with their problems and showing signs of life?
Mr. Deer: I think it varies. Banks are in different stages in terms of how they're managing through the cycle, and I think it varies both by geography and by product type in terms of the makeup of any given bank's portfolio. Certainly here in California, we saw the state enter the downturn first, given the heavy exposure to real estate and construction in particular, and so the banks here have really been dealing with this for well over a year if not a couple of years or more, and those banks with the heavier construction exposures obviously have been dealing with the worst of it. Meanwhile, up in the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii as well, banks have lagged their way into the downturn. The Pacific Northwest has been pinched now for a year or so. For Hawaii, I think it's been a more recent development, where the impact of visitor arrivals and the volume of tourism is starting to affect the local marketplace. In addition to the tourism aspect of their economy, it's also an economy that's heavily weighted toward the real estate industry. So it's not surprising that Hawaii too is finally feeling a pretty big pinch, although there they've got the benefit of a lot of federal dollars, largely military-related, that can help support the state's economy. On a more localized level, if you look within California, we're seeing very different trends in different parts of the state. Sacramento is very different from San Diego and San Francisco is different from San Jose or Silicon Valley. Each of these markets is behaving differently, and so it also depends on whether you're looking at a bank like Wells Fargo (WFC) or Bank of America (BAC), which have very broad footprints in the state, versus banks that have more localized footprints. Similarly up in the Pacific Northwest, Portland is having different issues from the more rural areas in Oregon. And in Seattle, the Puget Sound banks are seeing different trends too. In Seattle and Tacoma, that economy had been doing relatively better, but, as I said, over the past year that market has really slowed. Trade volume at the ports is down sharply and now we've got premier employers like Boeing, Microsoft and Starbucks reporting layoffs, and that's stating to ripple through the economy and to affect the banks.

 

Tickers included in this excerpt: CYN, NARA, PACW, PCBC, TMCV

 

For more information call (212) 952 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.