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Questioning Market Leaders For Long Term Investors |
JOHN KUKRAL - THE BLACKSTONE GROUP DOCUMENT # PAH208 JOHN Z. KUKRAL is a Senior Managing Director of The Blackstone Group and head of the Real Estate Group. Mr Kukral is based in London, where he serves as a Managing Director of The Blackstone Group International Limited and oversees the global real estate activities of the group. He is also a member of the firm's Executive Committee. Before joining Blackstone, Mr Kukral was a Principal at the Starwood Capital Group and Colony Capital, Inc. Mr Kukral graduated from Northwestern University and received his MBA from Harvard Business School. He is an active member of the Urban Land Institute and currently serves as the Chairman of The Savoy Group. Sector: lodging TWST: Would you begin with a brief historical sketch of Blackstone and then a picture of what the company has been doing lately and is doing now? Mr. Kukral: Blackstone has been investing in real estate since 1991, having invested $29 billion of equity in 110 separate transactions totaling $133 billion. Over the years we have invested approximately one-third of our capital in hotels. Blackstone started in the lodging business in 1991 by combining the franchise systems of Ramada, Howard Johnson's and Days Inn to create HFS, which is known as Cendant today. Since that time, we have bought over 200 hotels totaling 35,000 rooms. We invest across the spectrum of hotels from budget properties to luxury properties such as The Savoy Group in London. We have been partners with most of the major hotel operations including Hyatt, Marriott, Accor and Four Seasons. TWST: Could you comment on the general health of the hotel industry and on your own response to the events of 9/11? Mr. Kukral: The hotel markets had been coming off their peak since July 2000 and 9/11 made what was shaping up to be a down year even more negative. We responded to 9/11 almost immediately by doing a thorough review of the financial health of each of our hotels to make certain we could withstand a prolonged downturn in business. In October we had the courage to commit to the $750 million purchase of Homestead suites. Our belief was that if we had a capital structure that could withstand another potential shock to the system we would eventually do very well. TWST: Are people beginning to travel again as they had in the past? Mr. Kukral: Yes, if you look specifically at London, the business travel is coming back. In April and May, we're hoping to be back at or above the trend line of a year ago. Don't forget, business travel really started slowing down in July 2000. So it had dropped a long way prior to September 11 and is now back to where it was a year ago. TWST: Could you sketch out some of the elements in your strategic direction for the next two or three years? Mr. Kukral: We are continuing to target hotels both in the US and Europe, across the product spectrum. We're actually fairly bullish on the industry. Because of the downturn, we will see a reduction in the supply pipeline across most markets. When business comes back in a year or two we should see some positive RevPAR gains. TWST: You mentioned Europe. Any thoughts about Asia? Mr. Kukral: We haven't really cracked the code in Asia yet. We're still a small private group. We moved a good portion of our staff over to Europe two years ago, and I think we still have a couple of years of getting our arms around the European markets before we spread our wings farther. TWST: In what parts of Europe do you expect to be most active? Mr. Kukral: We will continue to focus on the major urban markets across all types of hotels and are looking at a number of situations from third-party managed hotels in secondary markets to small groups of three- and four-star properties in various countries, in partnership with great management teams. TWST: How closely do you involve yourself in the running of the hotels that you own? Mr. Kukral: I try to stay out of it completely. Usually when I see something and I don't like it, it ends up being a good concept. We have a great group of asset managers and one of the best teams on the luxury side of the business at Savoy. TWST: What are the major problems that might arise for you? Mr. Kukral: Another downturn in the US economy would clearly slow down business travel again. But I think that hotels, from an operations viewpoint, should be at a low now and slowly come back. I worry about supply. There are some markets where there's still new supply already under construction. You have to watch that you're not buying in these markets. If you buy well-located properties in supply-constrained markets, you should be all right. TWST: What are your feelings about acquisitions, joint ventures, etc.? Mr. Kukral: With interest rates low and the stock market not that attractive there has been a shift of capital from around the world into real estate assets including hotels. Therefore, while the operating market for the industry is positive, prices are high and there is a lot of competition to buy good hotel assets. We will continue to look for value-added situations and, as in the past, we are always interested in teaming up with strong operators. We have been a partner of most people in the hotel business ' Marriott to Hyatt to Four Seasons to Accor. So we're very receptive to them. TWST: What would be realistically the picture that you'd like to see for Blackstone three or four years out? Mr. Kukral: The way that I look at Blackstone is that we're not long- term owners of assets. We like to buy assets, add value and then sell them on to long-term owners. Right now, we have about $6 billion of assets in the US and about $3 billion of assets in Europe. We will grow our portfolio of real estate in Europe to equal the size of the US. However, in five to 10 years, we'll have a completely different group of assets where we can focus our management skills to great value for our investors. TWST: Do you have any thoughts about going public? Mr. Kukral: No. Being public is not for us, although we have taken a number of companies public. We were partners with Interstate Hotels, which we took public in 1996. We helped re-structure the DeBartolo Company, which we took public in 1995. And we were a large investor in Cadillac Fairview, which we took public in 1997. So in the last five years, we've probably taken more real estate companies public than just about anybody. But as far as our own business, we're still privately owned and we like to keep it that way. TWST: Is Blackstone fairly lean in terms of the number of people you have working there? Mr. Kukral: Oh, yes. We all keep busy. TWST: Could you tell us about the background of yourself and a couple of the other key managers at Blackstone? Mr. Kukral: We have an outstanding group of professionals at Blackstone Real Estate Advisors. Myself, John Schreiber and Gary Sumers, who runs our asset management, have all known each other since the early 1980s and been involved in real estate our entire careers. Most of the investing is done by a very talented group led by Jon Gray in New York, Chad Pike in London and Michael Billyard-Leake in Paris. TWST: What do you focus on most in your busy day? Is there any one thing that occupies more of your time than others? Mr. Kukral: I still try to spend the majority of my time doing what I love to do and what I have done since my first day of work out of college, get out and see properties. I try and see every property we buy. I enjoy assessing the markets and the property's ability to compete in that market. A significant portion of my time is spent with our investors. I enjoy hearing their thoughts not only on real estate but on broader investment markets. TWST: Beyond the things we've already talked about, can you see any large-scale political, economic or other factors that might be affecting you over the next few years? Mr. Kukral: There are a lot of potential obstacles to the economy's returning to a solid growth path. I have already mentioned the double dip recession scenario. What's happening in the Middle East, if it escalates, could have huge ramifications on the economy, on business in general, and on travel. Demographically, we still have an aging population in the US and to an even greater extent in many of the countries of Europe. This will put fiscal strain on countries going forward. On the positive side, for the lodging industry, I think the aging baby boom and aging population in general have large amounts of disposable income to spend and they will be traveling. So we are positive on the general tourism and travel business going forward. TWST: Is there any way at all for Blackstone to insulate itself from the ups and downs of the world economy? Mr. Kukral: It is hard to insulate yourself because, in general, real estate does move with the economy. Hotel room nights generally track GDP. The best insulation is a good capital structure and a great management team. As long as you have good assets, they will appreciate over time. For example, with Savoy, as we were buying it, we ran a scenario of what happened during the Gulf war and made sure that in a similar circumstance we were able to hold onto the assets. But for the most part, the assets that were lost in the late 1980s and early 1990s, if the investors were able to hold on, they would have eventually done all right. So the key is to have a strong financial position, so that you don't lose an asset in a potential down cycle. TWST: Could you give us the three or four best reasons why the long-term investor should be interested in Blackstone? Mr. Kukral: I would start with real estate in general. And as I see the world right now, real estate provides a good relative return compared to what you're seeing in other markets. You can buy property today without believing much future growth and get very good returns. My feeling is that you'll be rewarded down the road when the economy comes back. That will translate into more travel, rental growth, more RevPAR growth, which will then increase your return. So I think in general, risk adjusted real estate is a very good place to invest your money. As for Blackstone, two things. One is we've been at this for a while and have a very strong track record of creating value with assets, which I believe is what you have to do today. You can't just buy an asset and assume it will be worth more tomorrow. So our method of buying assets, and creating great value, is the way you have to invest in the future. Lastly, we've been one of the biggest investors in our fund. From our associates on up, we put our money where our mouth is and write our checks right alongside our investors. TWST: Thank you. (MC) JOHN Z. KUKRAL Senior Managing Director The Blackstone Group Stirling Square 5-7 Carlton Gardens 4th Floor London SW1Y 5AD UK 011 44 207 451 4000 011 44 207 451 4038 - FAX www.blackstone.com e-mail: info@blackstone.com Each Executive who is the featured subject of a TWST Interview is offered the opportunity to include a Corporate Profile or other highlight material to be provided and sponsored by and for the company. Copyright 2001 The Wall Street Transcript Corporation All Rights Reserved The Wall Street Transcript (TWST) interviews are published verbatim, and TWST does not in any way endorse or guarantee the accuracy of any information or opinions expressed herein and all opinions are subject to change without notice. Nothing herein constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. TWST interviews with CEOs may include include "forward-looking statements", which are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. TWST shall have no liability whatsoever for any trading losses arising out of use of this information. Copyright 1999 Wall Street Transcript Corporation. All Rights Reserved. |