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Archive for the 'General Investing' Category

Logistics Offers Growth Prospects in Energy Infrastructure

Posted in General Investing on January 25th, 2012

The primary growth prospects in the energy infrastructure space are in the logistics related to the handling of crude oil and natural gas liquids and are providing opportunities for most entities, says Brian Watson, Director of Research at SteelPath Fund Advisors, a money manager with a focus on energy infrastructure primarily through master limited partnerships.

“We’ve had declining crude oil, declining natural gas, declining natural gas liquids production in the U.S. for a generation practically, and now it’s actually reversed,” Watson said. “I think that seismic shift, which maybe hasn’t totally been recognized by most of the market, creates a really interesting opportunity set for these infrastructure providers.”

Watson says Buckeye Partners L.P. (BPL), a refined products transporter primarily moving gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from refining centers to consuming centers, is the firm’s largest holding across its funds.

“It’s a very attractive base business that benefits from annual tariff escalators and things like that. It’s a very secure low-risk business with some growth to it,” he said. “It trades attractively on a valuation basis, and we think it’s got an opportunity to have some multiples expansion as we go forward.”

Staffing Proves Resilient in Face of European Debt Uncertainty

Posted in General Investing on January 24th, 2012

The staffing sector is trending up as the market is not properly valuing the fundamental as well as the secular growth opportunities, and the near-term cross currents in Europe around the sovereign debt issues are masking growth in the U.S., says Kevin D. McVeigh, CPA, Senior Business Services Analyst at Macquarie Group Limited.

“When you layer in how quickly temporary help is growing as a percentage of total nonfarm payrolls, I think it bodes well for a much greater market opportunity,” he said. “If you look at that overall, it is trending at about 1.8%, in a period that I would characterize as early to midcycle, versus the prior two peaks of about 2%.”

McVeigh has chosen Robert Half International Inc. (RHI) as a top pick in the staffing sector due to how healthy the demand has been on the IT side in the near term and the well-capitalized balance sheets of staffing firms overall as a group.

“One area in particular that has really, even through the downturn, exhibited resilient characteristics and has participated in and enjoyed nice strength in the upturn has been IT staffing, which bodes well for companies such as Kforce and Robert Half,” McVeigh said.

Capex Outlook Points to Earnings Increase In Truck Leasing

Posted in General Investing on January 23rd, 2012

Increased capital expenditures guidance in 2012 may mean higher earnings for truck-leasing companies as they use capex to refresh their commercial rental fleets in response to increased demand for full-term lease contracts, says Kevin W. Sterling, CFA, Senior Vice President and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BB&T Capital Markets.

“Now we are beginning to see the commercial rental demand translate to more leasing activity,” he said. “I find it encouraging that we are seeing an uptick in leasing because that tells me that the business community feels a little bit better about the environment and their long-term demand picture.”

Sterling has a “buy” rating on Ryder System, Inc. (R). He believes 2011 is going to be a record capex year for Ryder with the company spending about $1.8 billion, and he says he expects 2012′s capex spend to surpass 2011′s level. Sterling also notes Ryder only buys a truck in its leasing division when it knows it has a lease agreement in hand.

“Last cycle, Ryder was at $75 stock, and today, it’s in the low $50s, but yet the company is spending a record level of capex, which could imply record earnings,” Sterling said. “In my opinion, there is a disconnect between the fundamentals and the stock price, which I believe is being driven by economic uncertainty. History tells us that as Ryder’s capex increases their earnings increase.”

Rising Smartphone Growth Favors Wireless Equipment Makers

Posted in General Investing on January 23rd, 2012

Wireless equipment companies, who have end-market licensing agreements across multiple vendors, will benefit from the continued growth of the smartphone industry in the wireless space, says Kulbinder Garcha, Managing Director at Credit Suisse.

“Smartphone volumes last year were 450 million units; they grew 55%, but we don’t think they have maxed out yet. We think that industry will continue to grow from these levels over the next two to three years and that it will will more or less double by 2015, reaching 1 billion units,” he said.

Garcha favors Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) because the company gets paid by end licensing and through its chipset business, which is 40% 3G WCDMA chipset share. He says on the licensing side, QCOM collects royalties for nearly every 3G device, smartphone and tablet sold in the world, so the growth in the end market drives Qualcomm’s licensing business.

“What that basically means, we think, is that no matter who is gaining share, whether it’s an Apple or whether it’s a RIM, whether it’s an Android vendor or someone else, Qualcomm will collect their royalty because they own the core I.P. along with two or three other companies in the world around which is designed as to how wireless standards operate,” Garcha said.

Cutting Costs Key for Northeastern & Mid-Atlantic Banks

Posted in General Investing on January 20th, 2012

The small- and mid-cap banks in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region that are favored as longer-term investment opportunities are the ones redesigning the operational overhead of the industry by focusing on their expense base, overall branch structure and cutting costs, says Collyn Gilbert, Managing Director at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.

“For the healthier banks, the pain seems to be more from an administrative and an operational perspective. The weaker banks, I think, we will see it become more of an intense cost burden. They’re really going to have to raise capital or increase staffing, and the overall cost component is going to be too prohibitive for them to make meaningful profits,” she said.

Gilbert says Webster Financial Corporation (WBS) has introduced a banking branch that is a fraction of the size of the traditional branch, and it makes sense because the overhead costs are considerably lower than a traditional branch.

“We would argue that these banks don’t need so much of that real estate or traditional bricks and mortar, and all that staffing, in an industry that’s in a massive deleveraging mode and probably will be for a while,” she said.

Onshore Gas Shale Plays to Pay Off in Long Term

Posted in General Investing on January 18th, 2012

The resource values of onshore shale gas plays are expected to firm up dramatically in the next three years, and there is 50% to 75% upside on several stocks for investors taking a three-year view without any move in the commodity, says Amir Arif, an Analyst at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.

“There is definitely a long-term upward bias that I think investors should be buying the bids, again, on the quality companies that don’t have any funding issues. Those are the names that you know will survive the next two or three years, and those are low on the cost curve,” he said.

Arif likes Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG) because it is low on the cost curve and has the ability to grow organically 20% to 30% without having any funding gaps. He says Cabot, which is developing the Marcellus shale, will perform well over the next two to three years.

“The names that we are less interested in are those that are higher on the cost curve in terms of gas production, and just because gas prices stay low, they can grow production, but they are not doing it economically. So they are not going to create any value, and that means the balance sheets will only erode further,” Arif said.

Oil-Levered Names Grow As Natural Gas Remains Depressed

Posted in General Investing on January 17th, 2012

Oil-levered entities are growing faster than natural gas-leveraged E&Ps, and they are expected to maintain differential volume growth in 2012, says John P. Herrlin Jr., Head of Energy Research for the Americas at Societe Generale.

“We don’t expect natural gas prices to recover until the second half of the year given the poor start to winter and ample supplies,” he said. “We do expect the industry to reduce U.S. natural gas capex meaningfully.”

Herrlin has a “buy” rating on Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC), a large-cap E&P that is exploring and providing differential value in the Gulf of Mexico, Lucius and Caesar Tonga; in Ghana’s Jubilee; and in Mozambique with its Barquentine with 15 to 30 trillion cubic feet of recoverable reserves.

“In the U.S. onshore, the Street may not fully embrace APC’s Niobrara or Utica potential. APC has always sought the big ‘E,’ exploration, and that creates added shareholder NAV, which offsets above-average N.A. natural gas production exposure,” he said.

Narrower Oil & Gas Trading Range Results in Further Capex

Posted in General Investing on January 13th, 2012

Global expenditures and limited spare capacity are expected to narrow the trading range for oil prices creating a more confident investment environment, which may translate into higher production and organic earnings growth, says Hernan Ladeuix, CFA, Analyst at Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia, a broker-dealer affiliate of Credit Agricole Securities.

“In fact, companies are now making decisions again. Most oil companies are increasing their capital expenditures, some of them in a very significant way. Large share repurchases are probably behind us. I think that equity markets are going to be more confident about the company’s prospects and will reward companies investing more,” he said.

Ladeuix says Chevron Corporation (CVX) has a strong growth production profile starting in 2014 at more than 5%. He also says from now to 2017, the company will probably grow net production by 20%. He adds that Chevron has a solid track record of returns, and the company has been improving projects execution in the past couple of years.

“Basically, one of the things we like about Chevron is the fact that they have a very strong position in very nice growth areas, especially in Australia. We expect about 50% of the capital employed to be in Australia in the next five years,” Ladeuix said. “They have two projects that involve about $70 billion to be completed between now and 2017, with very attractive possibilities to increase capacity by more than 50% after that, if things are right.”

Macro Trends Drive Regional Banks in Metro D.C. Area

Posted in General Investing on January 12th, 2012

Community banks in the Washington, D.C., area are experiencing growth driven by a solid macroeconomic backdrop, which includes higher employment rates, a healthy housing market and access to a skilled job pool, says Brett Scheiner, an Analyst and Vice President at FBR Capital Markets & Co.

“Nationally, the employment picture is what’s holding us back. The opposite is the case in D.C.,” he said. “D.C., inside the Beltway, west of I-95, has mid-single-digit unemployment, has a few months of condo supply, and very high levels of education and median income. Housing prices have either been firm or up in certain areas.”

Scheiner has an “outperform” rating on Eagle Bancorp (EGBN), which is based in Maryland. He says Eagle has grown loans and deposits 25%-plus in the past four quarters, and it has increased capital after recently replacing the TARP it had taken with small business lending fund money.

“No matter who you talk to in that the commercial real estate lending or commercial real estate investing business, the reputation that Eagle has is fantastic. Really, you don’t even need to go make those anecdotal checks. You can just see it from their growth. Holding your margin and growing in this market shows people want to bank with you,” Scheiner said.

Oil Producers To Outperform Gas-Weighted Names in 2012

Posted in General Investing on January 11th, 2012

Oil-weighted names should have the ability to grow production and cash flow on an adjusted per share basis more economically than the gas-weighted names in 2012 as oil prices go up and gas prices head downward, says Jeremy McCrea, CFA, Analyst at AltaCorp Capital Inc.

“If we see improvements to the global economic outlook as well, some of the names that have seen their multiples hit due to having a bit more debt than others or due to having a lack of liquidity, could outperform next year, too, if we see an improvement in just the global economic outlook,” he said.

McCrea says Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. (BXE.TO) is a 15,000 BOE/D producer, and looking at the company’s individual well results, Bellatrix is getting nearly twice the I.P. rates of its competitors. He expects Bellatrix to outperform this year due to its above-average production and cash flow growth, its strong balance and upcoming catalysts.

“So going forward, when I look at their growth, these higher rate of return wells now are actually giving them the ability to grow their cash flow per share about 50% over the last couple of years and going forward into 2012, we expect them to grow almost 50% as well next year, too,” McCrea said.