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Archive for February, 2010

Gold To Wane As U.S. Dollar Reaches Its Bottom

Posted in General Investing on February 9th, 2010

With little further to fall, a soon-to-recover U.S. dollar may signify the end of gold’s “safe-haven” pricing and purchasing by the world’s central banks, according to Commodity Strategist David Thurtell, a director at Citigroup Global Markets (London).

“A lot of the positives that have driven the gold price higher over the last decade really have waned or are starting to wane seriously,” said Thurtell, explaining ETFs have already seen the bulk of their gains and that only a small sliver of the gold hedge book – 250 tons – is left to buy back. “If anything, with credit harder to come by, small, high-cost gold miners might be inclined to put gold hedges back on, particularly now that gold prices are so high in historical terms.”

Along the same lines, Thurtell predicts China and Japan will not follow the Western central banks’ practice of purchasing massive amounts of gold, especially now that the price of gold has reached a historical high.

“The accumulation of gold reserves by Western central banks was really a byproduct of an exchange rate system which no longer exists. And there is no real reason why China and Japan would want to rush out and buy massive amounts of gold to mimic other central banks when the price is at a record level,” Thurtell said. “It may make sense to accumulate a couple of billion dollars’ worth of gold for a rainy day, or a couple of million barrels of oil, or a couple of million tons of copper…But if I was sitting in a central bank FX investment division, I wouldn’t be recommending buying gold at the all-time high.”

John Thain Gets a Second Chance

Posted in Liberum Management Change on February 8th, 2010

John Thain, the former CEO of Merrill Lynch, who found his reputation in tatters after Bank of America acquired Merrill in the midst of the financial crisis, has been given a second chance to revive his reputation.  Yesterday, CIT Group CIT (NYSE) announced that Thain would immediately become the new CEO and chairman of the small business lender.  CIT had gone into bankruptcy under the leadership of Jeffrey Peek who ultimately had to give up his leadership role of the firm.CIT has been a very important lender to small and mid-sized businesses.  It finds itself coming out of bankruptcy and hopes Thain can work wonders with the firm.   An article in Forbes summed up Thain’s situation with regard to the Bank of America acquisition of Merrill and how it impacted his reputation and firm.John Thain

As chairman and CEO of Merrill Lynch, Thain’s deal to sell Merrill was considered a lifesaving move for the company at the height of the financial crisis. But he then came under fire for having paid out $3.6 billion in bonuses to Merrill employees just before the deal closed, and for spending more than $1 million to redecorate his office at Merrill, despite its massive losses.

CIT announced yesterday, as the firm moves out of bankruptcy, that Thain would serve as the firm’s new CEO aOne year Stock Performance of CITnd chairman.  Thain replaces interim CEO Peter Tobin who will remain on the company’s board of directors.  The decision to select Thain may actually be a good fit.  Thain’s expertise could actually be very beneficial to CIT’s circumstances.

W. P. Carey & Co. LLC featured company in Wall Street Transcript

Posted in Financial Services Stocks on February 8th, 2010

Gordon F. DuGan, President and Chief Executive Officer of W. P. Carey & Co. LLC (WPC), and CEO of its series of Corporate Property Associates (CPA) non-traded REIT funds, talked to the Wall Street Transcript about his company W. P. Carey & Co. LLC.  Click here to read the complete interview.

TWST: Please give our readers a brief history and overview of the company.

Mr. DuGan: W.P. Carey (WPC) is an interesting company in that we have been in existence for a long time. We were founded in 1973; we have a terrific 30-year track record, and we manage approaching $10 billion in assets – and not many people have heard of us. I attribute this to two things. One, we have kept a low profile and just gone about our business, and two, we’ve done a very good job for our investors of providing predictable income and managing their investments through various cycles. Generally it’s either the more spectacular winners in a good market and the more spectacular failures in a bad market that get all the press. We’ve been somewhere in between, just cranking through and providing steady, attractive returns for investors.

What’s Behind the Sudden Departure of David Smith, CEO of PSS World Medical?

Posted in Liberum Management Change on February 5th, 2010

Wednesday of this week, PSS World Medical Inc. PSSI (NASDAQ), a medical distributor company, unexpectedly annoDavid Smithunced the immediate departure of its CEO and Chairman, David A. Smith.  Smith who had been with the firm since 1987 and was appointed CEO in 2002 and later his Chairman in 2007 has left the firm with virtually no comment.  The company selected Gary Corless, another long term employee and the current COO, to replace Smith as CEO.  The company also appointed Delores Kesler, a director since 1993, as the new chairman.Smith’s sudden and unexpected departure had an immediate negative One year Stock Performance of PSS World Medicalimpact on the company’s stock.  Smith’s departure comes according to Kimberly Morrison, a reporter for the Jacksonville Business Journal,

The management change comes on the heels of several strong quarters of financial performance for thGary A. Corlesse company. Despite a difficult environment, the company’s fiscal 2010 earnings growth is expected to be more than 30 percent.

PSS World Medical, a Jacksonville-based distributor of medical products, reported net income for the nine months ended Jan. 1 was $52.9 million, a 40.3 percent increase from the same period the year before. Although the third quarter results were slightly below analyst expectations, Kreger said the confirmed guidance suggested accounting and financial performance was not behind the change.

Investors will continue to wonder what exactly was behind the sudden change at the firm.  Corless, the new CEO, worked quite closely with Smith and is likely to continue the policies Smith put in place.  Anyone interested in this sector or specific company needs to stay on top of ongoing events.  The reasons for Smith’s departure will more than likely come out.

Analyst Q&A: A Domestic Growth Story in China Internet Services

Posted in General Investing on February 3rd, 2010

In this excerpt from TWST‘s interview with Tucker Grinnan, Regional Head of telecoms and media research, Asia-Pacific, for HSBC, discusses his favorite names in China’s Internet services sector as well as the domestic growth trends that are currently driving the industry.

TWST: What are the key growth drivers for the China Internet services space?
Mr. Grinnan: I think, again in a context of the broader Chinese market, China telco services, particularly wireless subscriber growth, has been the main growth driver for the industry as a whole. And investors have been positioned – particularly global investors – in a stock like China Mobile (CHL) because it’s consistently sort of a structural play on the expansion of telco services in China. That is no longer the case. Subscriber growth has slowed, usage has slowed, revenue growth has slowed, in particular now that Chinese telco companies are transitioning to 3G and there is a wave of cap ex. China is spending roughly $50 billion this year on telco cap ex, which is half of global cap ex. So an enormous expansion of the underlying telco network, both the fixed-line and the wireless portion. And the biggest beneficiaries of these are actually these China Internet service companies because their services are riding over top of this infrastructure, and you have an enormous expansion of the infrastructure at no direct cost to them. Overall, the Chinese Internet penetration rate today is around, let’s say on our numbers, 27% to 28%. We expect that to double over next three years. The China online services space is growing at something north of, let’s say, 30% a year compound annual growth rate in terms of revenues. Online gaming represents roughly 50% of that, and the other key areas are search, ad and e-commerce. The key point I’m trying to emphasize is that while we can talk about how all these companies are positioned within the China Internet space, and what the various advantages and disadvantages are, the underlying revenue base is growing explosively at roughly 30% a year. So not the rising tide that lifts all boats, but it makes it a lot easier to sail.

TWST: Would you say investors basically can’t go wrong in this space right now?
Mr. Grinnan: In a way, I don’t think we can go wrong. In other words, I would say at an aggregate level, I’d be buying this whole space. What you notice is that there are three big companies, Tencent (0700.HK), Baidu (BIDU) and Alibaba (1688.HK), which are large cap and have their respective stakes. Tencent is our favorite name because it is the most diversified. But I like the Chinese online game space; I like the online ad space; I like the e-commerce space, and all of these segments are in the midst of a structural growth surge. And one of the key points is that there is no Chinese state-owned company that competes in this space. So this is a space that is exclusively for private companies. And given the dominance of the Chinese government in the overall economy, it’s very hard to find a big, fast-growing space that has national exposure, that is geared to meet a domestic consumption play story, which I think is – the best part of the Chinese market is the emergence of the middle class in China, that’s the big story from a macro perspective. And this sector is one of the most interesting ways, in our view, to play the China domestic consumption play space because it’s a big sector that generates huge returns. It’s not capital intensive and there is no government-owned company in the space.

Genomics: A Great Play for Growth Investors

Posted in General Investing on February 1st, 2010

As today’s growth investors search for pockets of innovation to drive stock performance, genomics is emerging as a growing market within the life sciences sector, offering attractive growth opportunities and products that will potentially change the field of research.

“You have companies like Illumina (ILMN), for example, who earlier this week launched a pretty impressive new DNA sequencer, the HiSeq 2000,” said Isaac Ro, an analyst who covers the life science tools and diagnostics sector for Leerink Swann & Company. This product has the potential to provide four times the amount of genetic information per experiment with improved performance in comparison to other products currently on the market.

“I just raised my price target for [Illumina] because I believe this company is innovating not only in genomics, but they actually also have an entree eventually into the diagnostics world as well,” Ro explained. “So there are a couple of things that, over the next couple of years, that are going to change the market and could take them well over $1 billion in revenues.”

Ro is also positive on Illumina’s efforts to bring genomic sequencing to the masses, lowering the cost of sequencing technology to a price that would enable all research labs to buy and use the company’s products.

“And so they’ve got a technology still in the stock works that potentially emerges later this year or early next called Avantome, and there’s very little known about it other than it’s going to be ultra low cost, relatively high throughput. It would be about the size of a microwave and could go in every research lab,” Ro said. “That’s something that would really expand the market again.”