Domestic Rig Count Down 40%, Puts Ceiling on Natural Gas Prices
TWST: I know we’ve pulled a lot of rigs out. Where do we stand and what’s the outlook there?
Mr. Horowitz: The total domestic rig count is down about 40% year-over-year, per the Baker Hughes Rig count as of Nov. 27, 2009. Putting that into context, we are about 44% below the peak experienced during September 2008 but are about 30% off the bottom, which we experienced during June 2009. More specifically, when looking at just the domestic natural gas count, we are currently at 748, which has been roughly cut in half since its peak in September 2008 and has only rebounded about 10% from its lows. Clearly this tells us domestic natural gas rigs have been put back to work at a slower pace. However, we can’t forget that producers continue to drill in an attempt to hold leased acreage positions. As such, we expect the rig count to sequentially improve into the end of this year and into 2010. We are estimating the total rig count exits 2010 around 1,450, with the natural gas rig count exiting 2010 around 1,050.
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