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Archive for October, 2007

The Barge Pick: Kirby

Posted in Industrial & Services Stocks on October 4th, 2007

One of the analysts we spoke to this week, Charles Rupinski, had nothing but good things to say about one barge company in particular: Kirby.

  • “Kirby is a company that we follow that runs liquid barges all through the inland waterway system from the Gulf in the United States.”
  • “Over the years, there has been less interest in building new barges, so the number of new barges coming on line is relatively small. These companies are Jones Act companies so 75% of the crews have to be US citizens and 75% of the vessels have to be made in the United States. You can’t simply go to a yard in China to have a barge built and then have it brought over. “
  • “Kirby has the number one position in the marketplace. They have pricing power, are running at 100% utilization, and they just had a record-breaking quarter. ”
  • “The management is extremely transparent and the company has been increasing its overall margins by approximately 1% a year for the past five years. “

For the full interview with Mr. Rupinski, complete with an overview of the marine transportation sector, and stock picks, click here.

What ever happened to Satellite?

Posted in Technology Stocks on October 3rd, 2007

Moving back to our broadcasting discussion, another issue we discussed this week was satellite technology.

While at one point viewed as the death knell for traditional radio, satellite hasn’t proved to be anything quite so ominous. Analyst David Banks says why: a combination of overestimated consumer demand and flaws in quality which adds up to a product that is simply not as awesome as everyone thought it was going to be.  

TWST: David, what happened with the satellite? I thought it was going to be the be all and end all for radio, and it seems to have fallen by the wayside in terms of usage.

Mr. Bank: I don’t think anyone ever really thought it was the be all and end all, but our assessment is that what really got overestimated was the demand on the retail side for the product. It is actually a pretty sticky product. If you buy a car with a pre-activated satellite radio, be it XM or Sirius, it is a sticky, addictive product. Where we probably overestimated the demand by consumers is the number of people who are going to go out to a big box retailer,  go buy a plug-and-play car kit and become a subscriber. I think the products themselves have proven to have some real flaws in terms of the quality of connection into the car when it is not hardwired professionally. It is physically awkward sometimes. The last thing is, it is just not perceived of as being as cool a product as we thought it was going to be a couple of years ago. It is not on par with the iPod in the eyes of the consumer. It just didn’t spark the consumer in the way we thought it would.

For the full roundtable discussion of Broadcasting, click here.

Market Outlook in China

Posted in General Investing on October 2nd, 2007

With the government placing tightening measures on the economy in China, some are skeptical about the potential for growth in China’s market place. Franki Chung of Barings Asset Managment, however, thinks differently.

While America is embroiled in the throws of the subprime issue, China is facing the opposite problem- too much money many chasing too few goods.   The result of this, according to Mr. Chung, is a strong rising inflation rate on the consumer side, and very high valuation on the stock side.

In his interview, Mr. Chung related to us that the tightening measures that the government is placing on the economy is purely a means of fighting inflation and high valuation. The measures are an attempt by the Chinese government to make the growth of the Chinese economy sustainable, not to slow or kill growth by any means.

 To read more about Mr. Chung’s views, investment philosophy and stock picks, click here.

Hot Sector: Dry Bulk

Posted in Consumer Stocks on October 2nd, 2007

Our other special focus this week is Marine Transportation. TWST spoke with several analysts, and all of them said that current hot sector in Marine Transportation is Dry Bulk. Our question to each of them was: why?

  • “It is simply shipping and that’s a supply and demand business. There is simply more cargo being demanded to be moved than there are ships to move it in an efficient manner; hence ships are scarce and prices go up.” -Urs Dur, Lazard Capital Management.
  • “[The strength of dry-bulk] is driven by Asian demand for commodities, in particular iron ore for steel production and coal for electricity production.” -Charles W. Rupinski, Maxim Group, LLC.
  • “In the coal market, you see significant demand for coal in China, which is requiring lots of these ships. While the demand is accelerating for dry bulk vessels, the fleet growth is slowing as the shipyards are delivering crude tankers rather than dry bulk ships. ” -Douglas Mavrinac, Jefferies & Company.

For our full marine transport issue, featuring full interviews with each of the above analysts, click here.

Radio: Its Own Worst Enemy

Posted in Technology Stocks on October 1st, 2007

This week, TWST is taking a look at Broadcasting. According to the analysts we spoke to, Radio Broadcasting seems to be having a tough time. Our question was: What can they do about it?

TWST: John, is there anything the industry can do to brighten a flattish picture here?

Mr. Klim: I think for the most part it is going to be a tough long-term picture on the revenue side for the radio operators. There are several factors that are compounding radio’s revenue issues. Most important, I look at radio as its own worst enemy. What I mean by that is that the major industry participants must be willing to hold the line on pricing and maintain pricing integrity. We haven’t seen that historically, so I probably wouldn’t expect it to happen in the future. That is one thing that the industry could do. The only way you are probably going to get that is by taking capacity out of the system in the form of consolidation, but I do not anticipate that happening over the near term.

To take a look at the full Broadcasting Report, complete with industry roundtable and CEO interviews, click here.